Pace, Shot Clock Usage, and The Value of Gilbert Arenas

The precursor to this post, 'Washington Wizards Defense: is there any good news?' statistically assessed whether or not the Wizards defense really improved in 2007-2008. Many per game statistical changes from year to year hinge on game pace, the average number of offensive and defensive possessions. According to KnickerBlogger.net, in 06-07, the Wizards ranked 5th in the NBA in pace at 92.9 total possessions per game. In 07-08, the Wizards dropped to 26th with 88.3. The previous post outlined that the slowed down pace was not significantly affected by improved defense.
So it had to be the offense, right?

We all know that Antonio Daniels, as admirable as his job at the point was with Gilbert Arenas out, isn't made for the transition game. He's not enough of an offensive threat to get teams focusing on him.....leading to open teammates and increased ball movement. Let me illustrate:

As goes the theory with defense, the earlier an attempt occurs in the shot clock, the better the Wizards shoot. The numbers below from 82games.com illustrate the averages for offensive shot clock usage during Eddie Jordan's 5-year tenure at the helm.

>> Shot clock time elapsed: Wizards eFG%

0-10 seconds: 0.531
11-15 seconds: 0.453
16-20 seconds: 0.448
21+ seconds: 0.413

>> Without Gilbert Arenas pushing the rock, the Wizards shot clock usage within the first 10 seconds decreased dramatically between 06-07 and 07-08.

• Percentage of the total attempts went down from 41% to 34% (the previous 4-year average = 42.3%)
• Assisted baskets went down from 51% to 47% (the previous 4-year average = 50.3%)
• Points scored went down from 37.3 to 29.9 per game (the previous 4-year average = 36.7)

>> Furthermore - changes between 06-07 and 07-08:

• Percentage of the total attempts in the 11-15 second range (early offense) went down from 25% to 23%. (eFG% remained the same at 47.2%)
  
• Percentage of the total attempts in the 16-20 second range (generally when the initial offensive set breaks down) went up from 22% to 27%. (while eFG% rose from 45.8% to 46.5%, and percentage of assisted baskets went from 57% to 59%)
• Percentage of the total attempts in the 21+ second range went up from 12% to 16%. (while eFG% rose from 41% to 44%, and percentage of assisted baskets went from 49% to 55%)

>> We can deduce two things from the numbers:

1. The Wizards need a point guard like Gilbert Arenas. He pushes the ball. He's an offensive weapon. He gets the system in motion. Other players benefit from his presence.
   
2. Without Gilbert Arenas, as the shot clock was ticking away past the eight second mark, the Wizards did a better job at moving the ball (increase in assisted baskets) which led to better looks at the basket (increase in eFG%).

Final Analysis
Gilbert Arenas is worth keeping around as point guards like him are not a dime a dozen. Arenas' conduciveness to an up-tempo style benefits the Wizards by giving them more FG attempts earlier in the shot clock, when history shows that those shots are more likely to go through the net. True, Arenas has a long way to go before he can effectively balance his killer scoring instinct with an ability to distribute the ball. In the end, I'd rather taken my chances with the potential of Gilbert's growth because cutting losses and blowing the team up is much more of a risk.

Washington Wizards Defense: is there any good news?

Avidly watching (and blogging) the Wizards this past season, I came to the conclusion that while meaningfully improved, team defense still had a long way to go, especially in terms of guarding the perimeter. Since the end of the 07-08 season, there have been differing opinions on whether the Wizards defense had really improved from 06-07.

First came the Washington Times Wizards beat writer, Mike Jones, citing a "dramatic transformation" resulting from the debut of Randy Ayers' defensive philosophy. Jones' main statistical argument was that the Wizards went from allowing a league worst 104.9 points per game in 06-07 to 99.2 ppg in 07-08, 12th in the NBA. Mike Jones also pointed out that the Wizards went from getting out-rebounded by 1.8 boards per game to having the edge over opponents by 0.4 rpg.

Kevin Broom, in a polite counter-point on RealGM.com, concluded that the theory of Wizards defensive improvement was a fallacy. Broom was correct to write that per game statistics should not be used as a true indicator of improvement as game pace (the average offensive and defensive possessions) helps to tell the true story. In 06-07, the Wizards played at the 5th fastest pace in the NBA. In 07-08, Washington was the 4th slowest. As Kevin Broom puts it:

What happens if this season's Wizards played at the same pace as last season's? Their points allowed per game would rise from 99.2 to 104.3. In other words, this "improved" defense that Jones and mainstream media are celebrating is in reality an "improvement" of just 0.6 points per game.

The Pradamaster also previously covered this concept on Bullets Forever.

----------------------------
This got me wondering.....why exactly did the Wizards play at a slower pace this past season? Could it be the result of improved defense? And how would one go about figuring this out? There had to be some good news about the D, and I wanted to find it.

One traditional theory on defense hinges on shot clock usage. If you make your opponent use more of the shot clock, you are making them work harder to implement their offense. No ideal defense involves allowing your opponent to score quick baskets. I realize that the flip side of this argument is that some offenses (like the slow developing Princeton perhaps?) at times thrive on using the shot clock to wear down the opposition. The numbers, however, prove otherwise.

Remember that the Princeton offense in college, with a 35 second shot clock, is vastly different from the pro offense with 24 seconds. In the NBA, deliberateness need not apply. In fact, many have accused Washington of not employing a true Princeton offense. They are correct as the Wizards offense has been mislabeled. It should really be called the 'Eddie Jordan Pro-Style Princeton.'

Back to shot clock usage, where do we find it? Why, from our good friends at 82games.com. To instill that it's better defense to make the opponent use more of the shot clock, I took the average eFG% [(FG + 0.5 * 3P) / FGA] for the Wizards defensive shot clock usage during Eddie Jordan's five years as head coach.

Shot clock time elapsed: Opponent eFG%
____________________________
0-10 seconds: 0.551
11-15 seconds: 0.496
16-20 seconds: 0.482
21+ seconds: 0.422

As you can see, the later the shot comes, the less likely it will go through the hoop.
So how did the Wizards do from 06-07 to 07-08?

Ehh....minimal improvement. In 06-07, 37% of opponent field goal attempts came within the first ten seconds of the shot clock, 26% within 11-15 seconds, 24% within 16-20 seconds, and 13% after 21 elapsed seconds.

In 07-08 opponent attempts after 21 seconds increased by 1% (from 13% to 14%). Attempts during 0-10 and 16-20 elapsed seconds remained the same. The 1% difference came from opponents taking less attempts in the 11-15 seconds range (from 26% to 25%).

What does this tell us? Attempts within the first ten seconds usually indicate a score on the break, or in early transition offense. Attempts within the 11-15 second range usually indicate the initial play or set resulting in a good attempt (before the offense breaks down and somebody goes 1-on-1). So, the Wizards did a better job at disrupting early offense and forcing the opponent to take more tough shots with the shot clock winding down, and thus slowing the game pace.......albeit, by a meager 1%.

My curiosity as to if better defense slowed down the Wizards game pace (in the form of making opponents use more shot clock) was proven not to be true. The 1% change from 11-15 seconds to 21+ seconds is not significant.

This only leads us to what we knew all along, that the Wizards offense, in the absence of Gilbert Arenas at the point, slowed down.....and it wasn't necessarily a good thing as some would have you believe. Continue reading: Pace, Shot Clock Usage, and The Value of Gilbert Arenas.

So did Randy Ayers make any difference?
My personal observation tells me yes....but what do the stats say?

82games.com also breaks down shot attempts into four categories: Jump, Close, Dunk, and Tips (Jump is defined as 6ft. and beyond). Before Ayers came aboard the Wizards had issues with giving up too many close shot attempts. In 06-07, 26% of opponent attempts were from close range. That improved to 24% in 07-08. The difference was made up in forcing opponents to attempt 2% more jumpers than in 06-07 (67% to 69% of total attempts). Dunk attempts remained consistent at 5%, where they've been during each of Jordan's five seasons. Tip shot attempts actually went down from 2% to 1% (it's worth noting that the 07-08 figures add up to 99% as the percentages are rounded).

[07-08 Defensive Ratios: Jump - Close - Dunk - Tips]

• Boston Celtics: 70% - 24% - 4% - 2%
• Dallas Mavericks: 66% - 29% - 4% - 1%
• Cleveland Cavaliers: 65% - 28% - 5% - 1%
• San Antonio Spurs: 70% - 24% - 4% - 1%
• Orlando Magic: 69% - 25% - 4% - 2%
• LA Clippers: 63% - 30% - 5% - 3%
• Philadelphia 76ers: 63% - 31% - 5% - 2%

Two percent? Big deal. Opponents attempted 6,537 shots against the Wizards in 07-08. The 2% change essentially means that the Wizards made opponents take just under 131 shots as jumpers instead of from close range. That averages out to about 1.6 attempts per game. The Wizards played in 15 one-possession games this past season (games decided by three points or less). Their record in those games was 5-10 (the Wizards were 5-0 in games decided by four points). While 1.6 doesn't seem substantial, when you consider that an entire 48 minutes can come down to one possession, you better believe that a team will take every advantage it can get.

Traditional zone defense is not is played in the NBA. When they implemented rules allowing pseudo zones in 2001-2002, many people claimed it was either because of Shaq's dominance, or Iverson's ball pounding, and that zone would ruin the NBA. Too bad those opponents didn't factor in how the three second rule on defense and a more strict view on hand-checking would keep zones from slowing down the game. Zone didn't even take away amazing individual performances from the NBA game. Rather, zone defense has improved the offensive quality of the NBA game by being conducive to ball movement and by increasing the flow to the game.

We know that the Wizards often play a match-up zone, which not only helps to mask individual defensive inefficiencies, but also works to push the opponents away from the basket. As mentioned, past Wizards defensive problems involve opponents getting easy shots in the lane. Randy Ayers has altered that trend in the right direction. This is even more evident when you look at the eFG% that the Wizards have given up on close range shots. In 2006-2007, opponents shot 60.4% from close range, 61.6% during the four years prior to 07-08. This past season, that percentage improved to 58.8%; points from close range also went down by 3.3 (from 25.8 ppg to 22.5).

Look, I'm not going to deny that the Wizards don't have a laundry list of defensive issues. My #1 assertion has been that the Wizards need to acquire a lock-down perimeter defender in the off-season. They need someone to limit dribble penetration by the oppositions best creator. The match-up zone allowed the Wizards to make opponents shoot from the outside more, but assisted baskets on those jumper attempts increased from 67% (also the previous 4-year average) to 71% in 07-08. No one is pressuring the ball on the perimeter while possessing the quickness to intelligently play passing lanes and the ability to contest shots with discipline.

Finally, the 2007-2008 defensive shooting stats for the Wizards are astounding.

• The Wizards gave up an NBA worst 38.6% on opponent 3-point shots (tied with the Pacers). The Wizards opposition also jacked treys on 27% of all attempts, an NBA high.
• In contrast, Wizards limited opponents to 36.7% on 2-point jumpers, second best in the NBA only to the Boston Celtics. Yet, the Wizards were tied with Philly in giving up the highest percentage of assists on 2-point jumpers at 59%.
• More NBA Worsts: The Wizards gave up 65.8% on inside shots. But, only 30% of opponent attempts came on inside shots, tied for 2nd lowest in the league.
  

Conclusion
The Wizards did better as a team to pack in the zone and make opponents shoot worse from close range, while keeping them around the perimeter more often. That's a tangible defensive improvement in the right direction, the result of good coaching. But to advance further, all players must progress as individual defenders.

I'll defer to the age-old adage that you can use statistics to prove anything....it's all about how they are deciphered. In my personal translation, the coaches are pulling more than their share of the weight. It's time to get the right personnel in place and for the returning players to show the will to play defense. The final word on Wizards defensive improvement? Let's just say that it falls somewhere between a fallacy and dramatic, and I'm putting 60% of the weight on the side of the former.


{Disturbing Trends}
As mentioned, in looking for evidence of defensive improvement from 06-07 to 07-08, I gathered data for Eddie Jordan's 5 years as head coach in DC. Did you know? That opponent eFG% for shots taken with three seconds or less left on the shot clock have increased each season.....by an average of 5.5%? I've broken down each year below, but think about that. What does it mean? Playing the word association game, focus immediately comes to mind. Something is happening which is leading to a defensive breakdown late in the shot clock, and the trend is significant. Is there a mental breakdown, or is it physical fatigue?

Year - Opponent eFG% (3 seconds or less left on shot clock)
________________
07-08 - 46.4%
06-07 - 44.8%
05-06 - 42.1%
04-05 - 40.4%
03-04 - 37.5%

Could (Should) The Wizards Go After Elton Brand?

There's been a couple comments on this blog and on Bullets Forever pertaining to the Wizards attempting to acquire Elton Brand, who has the choice to opt of the last year of his contract just like Gilbert Arenas. Well, let's explore some hypothetical scenarios.

The first question you must ask is will Elton Brand even opt-out. He's been quoted in the papers that he is thinking "more and more about his future," and that "if negotiations go right between the team and David Falk, his agent, that he will return. If so, it will probably be under a new contract."

Brand knows another injury could be just around the corner and wants to secure his financial future. He also knows that at the age of 29, he's still a hot commodity. Sounds like a guy who wants to opt-out and get a fat 6-year contract to me. If Brand decides not to opt-out, he stays with the Clippers for 1-year at $16,440,000 million.

It's also worth mentioning Corey Maggette, as he could also come into play. He's more likely to opt-out as he's desperate to get paid and feels he's worth more than the $7 milli he would get next year. Maggette has also had issues with Mike Dunleavy, citing lack of defense. But Dunleavy has gone on record saying that he wants Maggette back.

It seemingly all depends on the checkbook of Clippers owner Donald Sterling. True, he's recently become a little more free spending, but might not find Maggette to be a smart investment, leading Brand to question commitment to winning.

Scenario 1: The Pink Elephant
Somehow, something happens and Gilbert Arenas gets mad.....or he suddenly wants to leave DC because he doesn't like the weather, or because he flips a coin, or because he figured out that 'Clipper' has seven letters, the same amount of crosses tattooed on his surgically repaired knee....whatever the case, Gilbert just wants to get the hell out of Chocolate City.

At the same time, out in LA, Donald Sterling wants more BRI (baskeball related income) and figures that someone flashy like Gilbert Arenas will sell more seats than Elton Brand, the quiet leader. Could you imagine both Arenas and Kobe Bryant playing in the same arena in La-La land....the Staples Center Duo? And Gilbert, wanting something new to overcome, figures his moxie would be best served playing in the shadow of the reigning MVP.

The Clippers and Wizards could just do a 1-for-1 sign-and-trade (legally I believe you can - in 2005 the Bulls sent Antonio Davis and a sign-&-traded Eddy Curry to the Knicks for Tim Thomas, Mike Sweetney, a sign-&-traded Jermaine Jackson, and a couple 2nd round picks). But Gilbert for Brand straight up would throw each team in such disarray personnel wise, others would need to be included......unless the teams make other moves aside from Brand for Arenas; perfectly possible, but it's asking a lot.

[Note: players who are signed and traded are given the same rights and increases as if they were re-signing with their current team]

• Part 1: Arenas and Brand are of similar value....one can assume, so you give them each 6-year, $109 million contracts with $14.5 mill in year 1 and 9% yearly increases (rounded yearly payment schedule = 1: $14.5, 2: $15.8, 3: $17.2, 4: $18.8, 5: $20.5, 6: $22.3).
  
  
• Part 2: Clippers sign Corey Maggette and trade him to the Wizards, contingent on letting Antawn Jamison walk (also, with Haywood at 5, Brand at 4, and Butler at 3....that would leave Jamison out of the starting rotation...but it's not like AJ hasn't played 6th man before). So, if Maggette is almost four years younger than Jamison, do you give him Jamison money, but for six years? ($9.5 million in year 1 and 8.5% yearly increases - $70 million total) Maggette's last contract was 6-years, $42 million. Is Maggette worth that much more?
  
  
• Part 3: Going back to LA in exchange for Maggette would be Etan Thomas (to "replace" Brand), Oleksiy Pecherov (a young big), and the 18th pick. [Good god, I think the Clippers might rather have the cap room by letting Maggette walk.]
  

How would both teams look?

Wizards
PG: Daniels
SG: Maggette, Stevenson, Young
SF: Caron Butler, Maggette
PF: Brand, Songaila, McGuire
C: Haywood, Blatche

Clippers
PG: Livingston, Knight
SG: Arenas, Mobley
SF: Thornton, Powell
PF: T. Thomas, Pecherov
C: Kaman, E. Thomas

I don't have to go any further before realizing that his is a terrible idea.....for both teams.

[a couple days pass........]

On second thought, this might not be the worst idea in the world.....but point guard would be a great concern. Would Maggette mesh? Would the Lock Smith come off the pine? Does this bury Nick Young? Do the Wizards play someone like Stevenson as the back up point to get Nick more time? Use the MLE on Roger Mason as the backup PG? Would the Clippers want Nick Young to be thrown in the deal?

It's possible that as an alternative the Wizards could let Jamison walk and just sign Maggette to a 5-year contract. Then you could keep some depth in not having to give up Etan, Oleksiy, and the pick. But you would have to sign Maggette before trading Arenas for Brand because, as I understand it, you can't sign Maggette for anything more than the MLE if Brand's new contract pushes the Wiz over the cap.

....so many questions, my head hurts...... not to mention that Clippers fans are probably laughing their asses off at the above suggestions. At the end of the day, moving Arenas for Brand doesn't sit well with me as I'm patient enough to keep giving it a go with the Big Three.

Scenario 2: Ernie Grunfeld, the Dream Merchant
No, our local DC NBA GM has not teamed up with 9th Wonder to drop a new album.....Is there a scenario where the Wizards get Elton Brand without giving up any of the tres grande?

1. Abe Pollin must say "Eff it -- I want another ring while I'm still young. Ernie, you have my full blessing to travel down luxury tax highway."

2. It would have to be a sign and trade and the Wizards would be giving up depth.

3. The Clippers (and Donald Sterling) would rather piss off their fan base and rebuild with youth.....this decision could also hinge on the Clippers position after May 20th, when the NBA draft lottery takes place. The Clips finished with the 6th worst record in the NBA and have a 7.5% chance at landing the top pick.

4. Elton Brand wants to leave.....while the Clippers have some pieces, they are much further away from contending (especially in the West) than the Wizards. Chad Ford thinks that Brand going championship chasing is a possibility....Clippers Nation doesn't see Brand playing for any team other than the Clippers next season.

Assuming the above, what kind of package could the Wizards offer in a sign-and-trade?

First you gotta ask the question, does Elton Brand's worth = Gilbert Arena's worth?

In scenario #1, I assumed that Brand and Arenas were of similar value, hence both worth 6-year, $109 million contracts. Brand's last contract was for 6-years and $82.2 million (the Clippers matched an offer from the Miami Heat in July of 2003). Arenas' last contract was for 6-years and $64 million. That's about a 70% increase for Gilbert over his last contract, while just a 33% increase for Brand.

Both players are coming off serious injuries. Gilbert Arenas is three years younger and sells more jerseys. Brand might be a more desirable piece as a shot blocking big man who doesn't command the ball. My head might explode. I'm just going to stick with the idea that these two will receive similar contracts as stated.

In scenario #2, the Clippers want to save money and the Wizards want to spend more money....so we will invoke the Traded Player Exception....simultaneous style (as both teams are over the salary cap). Meaning, in order for the Wizards to accept Brand's signed contract, paying him $14.5 million in year one, the Wizards must send $11.520 million in contacts (the 125% + $100K rule) back to the Clippers.

More assumptions:

1. The Clippers want both Nick Young and Andray Blatche. Their salaries for next year equal $4,342,628 million -- $7,177,372 left to ship.

2. Well, that's easy.....just give the Clippers Etan Thomas ($6,864,200) and Dominic McGuire ($711,517) and your sending back $11,918,345 to LA. The Clippers get three promising young players, two who grew up in SoCal, and Etan's contract comes off the books in two years when Clipper Steve wants to make moves on the free-agent market.

• The Wizards start: Arenas, Stevenson, Butler, Jamison, and Brand.
• The bench includes: Haywood, Songaila, Daniels, Pecherov, 18th pick, maybe Roger Mason (sacrificing youth and depth, huh?.....well, I'm sure that championship chasing elders would want to sign with the Wizards for the minimum)
• The Clippers roster: I don't care.
  

3. Not so fast my friend....you just got Lee Corso'd. The Clippers just called.....they don't want Etan Thomas, they want Brendan Haywood (they like Kaman as their starting center, but Haywood could be trade bait); and they don't want Dominic McGuire, they want a future 1st rounder. Haywood's salary for next season is only $5.5 million.....so the Wizards would have to find more money to send to the Clippers. Does Haywood, Blatche, Young, another player, and a pick seem way too much to give up for Elton Brand? My intuition says yes.

Conclusion
As this rough outline doesn't meticulously factor in every financial scenario such as trade kickers, bonuses, salary cap, etc.... the point being: is Elton Brand a plausible option for the Wizards? Sure, anything is possible. But these scenarios hinge on unpredictable player desires and nondescript team goals. There will also be plenty of other teams vying for the services of Brand......Philadelphia and Miami come to mind. The safe money is on Brand returning to the Clippers alongside Kaman, Thornton & Co.

Recapping scenario 1: I am vehemently opposed to blowing up the Wizards. This franchise only evokes worse karma in the future if they jettison both Gilbert Arenas and Antawn Jamison. #2: In my dreams, might the Clippers be persuaded by Young, Blatche, Thomas, McGuire and a future 1st rounder (or two)? Something tells me that as easily as I would pull the trigger on that trade, the Clippers would just as easily reject it. Then again, Brand could walk (for a lesser, 5-year contract) and leave LA's 2nd team with zilch. In any case, the possibility is at least worth the price of a phone call to the west coast.

Not only is LeBron a baby, but he's an a-hole...to his mother

LeBron James' words to his mother: "Sit yo ass down." Sure, she didn't have to be as involved in a LeBron-Paul Pierce off-the-court, wrap-up-foul scrum. And of course LeBron was in the heat of the moment. Still, he barked at Gloria with the command of a bread-winner. The thing is, any mom might have been concerned and up in the mix, but not any son would tell her to sit her ass down (perhaps moms was simply under the influence). Even K.G. was like, "Hey man, you can't be talkin' yo mama like that."

big-ups as always to Odenized on point with the clips

Back to the baby who needs to be put in the corner.

Them folks at WIZZNUTZZ got the whole L-Baby-J tee-shirt thing going on....check them out and get you one. My fav:
LeBron's dunk over Kevin Garnett in Cleveland's game four win, tying the series, will no doubt be part of NBA playoff lore, especially if the Cavs go on to win the series.

But as a Wizards fan, I just love to bitch and moan about LeBron James being a baby. So I present this scene from Boston's win in game two of the series:

It used to be if you fell down, you got right up and acted like nothin' hit ya. Can't let the other team see weakness by showing that you are affected. Take the punches and don't flinch.

But not LeBron James.....looks like he is changing the game in more ways than one. I halfway expected the bull crap to end after the Wizards series, but now King James has brought his act to Beantown for round two.

With about four minutes left in the 2nd quarter, LeBron went hard to the basket in transition. Did he get fouled? Of course. Sam Cassell ended up getting ahold of LeBaby's jersey and inadvertently caught him in the mouth.

Down goes LeBron! He stayed on the floor, on his knees, checking his mouth for a good 30 seconds before getting to his feet only to check on his mouth boo-boo some more.

The absurdity has simply gone too far. Now LeBron has his handlers, the refs, handing out Flagrant 1s like the USS Technical Foul is going down in deep waters. I guess LeBron is simply a product of today's sissified society.

Sincerely,
America

Washington Wizards Future Part III: Needful Things

Parts I and II of a four-part series on the future of the Washington Wizards covered the currently signed players and the free agency of Gilbert Arenas and Antawn Jamison.

Washington Wizards Future Part III: Needful Things

We've known Ernie Grunfeld to be a relatively savvy prospector of player futures. It's also pertinent that the Wizards effectively make use of limited cap room. Gone are the days of the irresponsibility highlighted by these prom-night dumpster babies:

• Brian Cardinal (6 year, $37 million, Grizzlies)
• Adonal Foyle (6 years, $42 million, Warriors)
• Jim McIlvaine (5 years, $35 million, Sonics*)
• Todd MacCulloch (6 years, $34 million, NJ Nets)
• Jerome James (5 years, $30 million, Knicks)
• Calvin Booth (6 years, $34 million, Sonics*)
• Vitaly Potapenko (6 year, $33 million, Sonics*#)
• And many more....
  

Wow, crowded dumpster.

* Seattle must have bad karma from grunge rock and Starbucks. Being responsible for three of these horrendous contracts is bad enough, but now Space Needle City won’t even have a team to mismanage funds on.

# Speakling of Vitaly Potapenko….as Mark Price came up in a conversation on Bullets Forever, I did some research.

In late September of 1995, distinguished Washington Bullets GM, John Nash, took a risk and traded the 12th pick in the '96 draft to the Cleveland Cavaliers for an aging Mark Price. Someone needed to fill the hole left by a departed Scott Skiles and Nash didn't feel that Mark's brother, Brent Price, could adequately distribute the ball to the likes of Chris Webber, Juwan Howard, Rasheed Wallace, Ledell Eackles, Calbert Cheaney, Tim Legler, and Gheorghe Muresan.

Mark Price, then 31, didn’t even make it to the beginning of the season before getting injured which left John Nash scrambling to acquire Robert "The Original Pac Man" Pack from the Denver Nuggets for Doug "Philly’s Finest" Overton and Don "Oft-injured 'gym rat' who tested positive for steroids in 2000" MacLean, just days before opening night. Mark Price played only 7 games in that 95-96 season…..I also blame Nash's curse inducing trade for C. Webb only playing 15 games that year. But I’m digressing…..

Back to that 12th pick in 96….Cleveland used it to select overpaid bust, Vitaly Potapenko. Who was taken 13th? None other than this year's MVP, Kobe Bryant. The likes of Peja Stojakovic (14), Steve Nash (15), Jermaine O’Neal (17), and Zydrunas Ilgauskas (20) followed. I just love hindsight….and coincidently, John Nash was forced to resign in April of '96.

The Matter at Hand: What do the Wizards need?

Who, or what, can best push the 08-09 Wizards to the next level? We can certainly start with intangibles such as health, maturity and growth. Those things are great, but the question when it comes to salary cap flexibility is personnel. I've broken down team needs into three areas:

1) A lock-down perimeter defender. The Wizards gave up a ton of treys this year, 683....an NBA record no less. DeShawn "Lock Smith" Stevenson can only guard one person. The team needs a lengthy stopper coming off the bench who can recover and contest outside shots; someone with the quickness to stay with smaller guards. The Wizards gave up some many offensive rebounds partially as a result of dribble penetration which forced the interior defense to shift out of position. Simply put, the Wizards need someone whom they can insert to defend opposing guards so that Eddie Jordan is no longer forced to overuse sub-par defensive combinations such as Gilbert Arenas and Antonio Daniels.

2) A rugged rebounder who has the resemblance of a post game. No question that the Wizards have rebounding issues. They consistently got killed on the glass many times this season, especially when it came to offensive rebounds. Stats place the Wizards struggling to keep up with the median, 14th in rebounding margin (+0.40), and 19th in rebounds allowed to opponents (41.19 per game)…of course, rebounds allowed can be indicative of game pace. According to KnickerBlogger, the Wizards are 19th in the NBA in defensive OREB% (offensive rebound percentage). Getting into the top third in these rebounding categories will translate into more wins.

The reasons the need for a rebounder is not #1 is because Etan Thomas should be fully back, Andray Blatche will improve his strength, and rebounding can be a specialty of Dominic McGuire. However, keep in mind that none of these guys play inspiring 1-on-1 post defense. Haywood can block shots, but he's not agile enough to keep up with quickness, and Songaila's toughness cannot overcome the fact that he is undersized.

On second thought…..maybe I'm putting too much hope into Etan Thomas. Also according to KnickerBlogger.net, the Wizards ranked 22nd Defensive Efficiency, and 27th in Effective FG% from the opposition. Perhaps the team need for someone to generally hold down the paint propels the big man requirement back to number one over a perimeter defender. Grunfeld's first move really depends on confidence in Etan.

3) A spot up long distance threat. Sure, the Wizards made a franchise record for threes in 07-08, totaling 575….without Gilbert Arenas. Stevenson, Jamison and Butler have proven that they can shoot the trey ball, but they aren’t pure shooters. And if the Wizards choose to let Roger Mason Jr. walk in favor of more minutes for Nick Young, then your 3 point shooting takes a hit. I can certainly understand the desire to give Young some of the departed MaseON's run, but I’m weary of Bean Burrito's long distance consistency….cat is streaky as they come. Ideally, the Wizards need a player off the bench who can hit spot up threes resulting from penetration or from early offense in transition. This player would be able to divert attention away from Caron, Antawn, Gilbert and Nick Young attacking the basket.

It seems like the Wizards need a lot, right? And most all NBA teams would like to add the pieces I’ve described above. Who does the team have a shot at landing? A couple words of warning, the potential options ain't gonna 'wow' ya.

Read more - Washington Wizards Future Part IVa: New Additions (Free Agent Bigs) [hosted on Bullets Forever]

Calling Out Doris Burke on David West

Watching game three between the New Orleans Hornets and the San Antonio Spurs last night, something just wasn't right about ESPN's television broadcast team, and it was Doris Burke.

picture from sidelinehotties.com

Now I don't necessarily have a problem with Doris herself, nor do I have much of an issue with her partner, Dan Shulman (Vital panderer). Burke's analysis? Meh....it's okay (we'll get to that later)....She obviously has basketball experience, as she played and coached at Providence. But it's her voice. The higher pitch just doesn't sound right doing the color commentary for an NBA game. I'd say that same thing if it were a man with an intolerable voice. In fact, I'll point out Reggie Miller right now....old Pacer #31 actually sounds worse than Doris.

Ok....that's just the sound. I should get over it, right? A consensus is already building that Reggie Miller lacks what it takes to be a good color person. What about Doris? In the past, her analysis has seemed adequate....nothing stood out one way or the other.

But last night's game.....it was say, in the 2nd quarter, and David West just got finished hitting a mid-range baseline jumper from around 12 feet.

Doris' comments were to the effect that West's mid-range shot was something he developed after entering the league. She watched him play a lot at Xavier and his offensive game did not extend too much past the four foot range.

Wait a minute? I saw David West a bunch in college too, only live once though. But he had all sorts of mid-range game back in those days. Yea, he was dominant inside as he shot 53.1% from the field for his four year career. West did not shoot a lot of 3s, only 18-55 for his career (didn't take any his freshman year and took and missed one his soph year). But his mid-range game, along with lack of size and quickness, is why many scouts called him a tweener.

But that's just my recollection and a couple stats. What does West's college scouting report say?

Let's visit our friends at NBADraft.net for David West's profile, written by Matthew Maurer:

"Shoots the ball with great touch and has decent range." [1st paragraph]
and
"Has an assortment of back to the basket moves, from pump fakes to the short turnaround jumper ... Has range on his jumper out to 18 feet." [3rd paragraph]

What about David West's NBA.com 2003 Draft profile?

"Can score both with his back to the basket and also facing the basket from out to 18 feet."

Well, I'm satisfied....Doris Burke was wrong about David West. We all make mistakes, but please don't claim you saw him play a lot in college and then get the scouting report completely wrong.

Later, in the final minutes of the 3rd quarter, when Chris Paul hit an amazing spinning reverse flip shot...go ahead and watch.

Doris Burke called the move Jordan-esque. C'mon lady, really? We have to compare every shot like that to Michael Jordan now? That is the most out-of-the-box comment about an amazing shot that one can make. I would understand if Paul hung in the air like MJ, but he didn't. I would've rather Doris stay with the simple 'circus shot' comment.

Doris, please do us all a favor and stick to WNBA games.

[Update: Perhaps my criticism of Doris Burke...mainly that last sentence......was a little harsh. But as I stated in the comments section, I could not sacrifice my memory of David West in college. Nonetheless, the New York Times has recently given Doris Burke some props....good read.]

Other Bad Coverage from ESPN:

Mike & Mike
I used to take issue with the lack of NBA coverage from ESPN Radio's morning duo. Now I take that back, I'd rather them not cover NBA basketball at all. Golic is clearing reading from notes someone has given him....today's analysis was that the Spurs "ran the Hornets out the gym" last night. I don't consider a 2 point game with 9 minutes left in the 4th before one team (the Spurs) makes an 11-0 run, ultimately winning by 11 as a "running the other team out the gym" game. The only redeeming quality between them both is that Greenberg covered Micheal Jordan in Chicago during the early 90s. Other than that, Mike & Mike's NBA commentary is painful to hear.

Mike Tirico
At halftime, Mike Tirico reported a stat handed to him on a piece of paper....well more like a fact: "Manu Ginóbili has been voted the most popular person in Argentina....even more than their President."

I usually like Tirico....I still do, but this is quite misleading. For one, Argentines don't really like their president, Cristina Fernández de Kirchner (although she is much more attractive than any female President the U.S. could elect).

This lady's run-down:

• She was elected in 2007.
• Her husband, Néstor Kirchner, was previously President from '03-'07.
• Argentina relations with the U.S. have deteriorated during her term as she was suspected of election fraud in receiving illegally funded money from Venezuelan President, Hugo Chavez.
• This past March, she tried to raise taxes on soybean exports which led to nationwide protests and highway blockades.
• Argentines with whom I've spoken have said that since her election, she has become less visible in public and has essentially become a basket-case as Argentine rags have covered her psychological problems.
• Christina's approval rating is about 5% less that George Bush's rating.
  

Tirico's "fact" is like saying that Chris Paul is more popular than George Bush....not much insight there. Not to mention that I find it hard to believe that Manu Ginóbili is more popular than the past of Argentine soccer, Diego Maradona, or the future, Lionel Messi.

Mike Tirico, I expect better from you.

Washington Wizards Future Part II: The Assumptions

This is the second installment of a four-part series assessing the future of the Washington Wizards. Part one focused on the current player contract situation. Part two keys in on the free agency of Antawn Jamison and Gilbert Arenas.

Washington Wizards Future Part II: The Assumptions

Assumption #1: Antawn Jamison will be back….because without him, you lose Gilbert Arenas, right?. Evidently, AJ the Gentleman is willing to play for about $10 million per, but for how long? I would say four years is reasonable, but three would be ideal….putting the termination of Jamison's contract in line with the end of Caron Butler's, as well as Songaila's opt-out year and Stevenson's player-choice. Those three would equate to just under $20 million of available space. Add AJ into the mix and Washington would have more than enough money to re-sign Butler and do some dabbling in the free-agent market heading into the 2011-2012 season.

Back to Jamison….it's been theoretically assumed that he and Gilbert would simply switch salaries, giving Antawn a contract worth close to the aforementioned $10 million per year. Could the Wizards afford to tack on an extra $2 million to keep AJ's contract at 3 years? I'll assume yes, which would also allow Jamison to go championship chasing at the ripe age of 35. So, a 3-year, $32 million dollar contract could estimate to spread out like this: YR1: $9.75, YR2: $10.676, YR3: $11.69 (9.5% yearly increases, the max is 10.5%).

Take the $42,165,117 (amount in Wizards guaranteed contracts for 10 players heading into 08-09) on the books and add $9,750,000 for a total of $51,915,117.

Assumption #2: The Wizards will not make a major trade. For one, if the Wizards do make a trade, it would hopefully include Etan Thomas as a salary dump. I'd love to package Etan and our 18th pick to a team with cap room, but as Etan's coming off heart surgery, that's not happening. Besides, cap room has become an increasingly valued commodity. If the Suns gave away the likes of Kurt Thomas and two future 1st rounders to Seattle for a conditional 2nd rounder….I doubt the Wizards could get anyone to bite on their junk. In trade talk, I'd be vehemently opposed to sacrificing future picks and in the end, I'd rather keep Etan in hopes that he can come back and be the rebounder off the bench that the Wizards need.

Also, I can't see any team out there being too interested in a combination of either Etan or Antonio Daniels and some combination of Wizards youth (Blatche, Young, McGuire, Pecherov) to offer a deal that would knock our socks off….. giving the Wizards a highly valued player who would undoubtedly boost the team to the next level.

I know that people want something big to happen…..perhaps the traditional Redskins off-season mania, where Washingtonians have become accustomed to celebrating paper championships, has been transferred onto Wizards nation. During his tenure in the District of Columbia, Ernie Grunfeld has proven to be distinctly effective GM. The Wizards should keep the pieces he has drafted and ensure a solid foundation for the future without doing anything rash.

Assumption #3: The Wizards will sign Gilbert Arenas to a 6-year contract. DC is essentially his only option, unless Gil wants to send his career hurling backwards. Because if he isn't playing for a winner, Arenas might just be another gunner on a bad team…..perhaps a rich man's Jamaal Crawford. Teams with summer money: The Sixers will keep Igoudala and Louis Williams, the Hawks will no doubt retain Josh Smith and Josh Childress, the Bobcats will sign Okafor and continue to be fiscally responsible, and the Clippers….well, they might have some money, but I doubt Arenas wants to go to a franchise in perpetual disarray…scarily ironic that the Clippers were on the other end of the "coin flip." And yes, I realize that in the past, the Wizards have been dubbed the Clippers of the East.

How can the Wizards sign Arenas and someone else?

The MLE (mid-level exception) went up 4.3% two years ago and 2.7% last year. It's based on average player salary and won't be set until July. But let's just say that the current MLE of $5.356 million goes up 3.5% to $5,543,460. Let's round that up to $5.6 million for cushion and subtract from the estimated luxury tax threshold of $71.528 (estimate from part 1 of this series) to get $65.928. With an estimated salary of $51,915,117 after signing Jamison, we are pushing it by giving Gilbert more than $14,012,883 million in the first year of his new contract.

But what about our 18th pick in the draft? Yes my friend, what about it? Well, according to the NBA rookie salary scale, the 18th pick gets a guaranteed $1,160,200 in his first NBA season. So, now, you can only give Gilbert $12,852,683 in year one.

Let's talk NBA draft real quick. For one, I'm all for trading the pick. The Wizards have enough young players as it lies and a rookie, along with the MLE, would put the roster at 14. I'd almost rather use the MLE on two players and keep money we would have given to a rookie for Gilbert and Antawn.

Wait, so how much will Gilbert's 6 year contract be? That depends on the negotiating skills of Ernie Grunfeld. Say we pay Gilbert the aforementioned $14,012,883, with a maximum 10.5% raise each year….the result is a 6 year contact worth $109,491,153 million dollars. Note: Not only can the Wizards offer Gilbert a 6 year contract versus 5 max years from any other team, but the Wiz can also offer a 10.5% yearly raise over 8%.

What if the Wizards either: can't trade the pick (not likely); want a rookie because we think we can get a steal at 18 (yea, I could see that); or want to use our bi-annual exception (in this case, we need to talk, because the bi-annual exception for 08-09 is set to be $1.91 million, $749,800 more than what the Wizards would be required to pay a first rounder)? For now, let's just choose to stay in the draft and use the MLE for whomever. In that case, we are giving Arenas the $12,852,683 in year one; 10.5% yearly increases would make the deal 6-years at $100,425,807.

Is that a passable figure? I'd say it's more than fair. We can always fudge salaries to possibly give Gilbert more money, if that's even necessary. For instance, we could give Jamison $8.6 million in year one (opposed to $9.75), give him 10.5% raises and a 4-year contract for $40 million (instead of 3 for $32). Of course, I'm only thinking about next year as I'm doling out max percentage raises willy-nilly style. The point is, the Wizards should have enough money to reasonably sign Arenas and Jamison, and to gain at least two quality players (an MLE and a rookie or a BAE), assuming that the team doesn't re-sign Roger Mason.

But who's to assume that Grunfeld doesn't want Roger Mason back? I know part of that depends on the Potomac Rainmaker's market. Would bringing Roger Mason back fill a team need? What exactly does this team need?

Read more - Washington Wizards Future Part III: Needful Things

Washington Wizards Future Part I: The Situation Room

This will be a four-part series assessing the future of the Washington Wizards, I present the first installment:

Washington Wizards Future Part I: The Situation Room

Where do we go from here? The temperature of Wizards Nation seems to range from mild impatience to furious calls for drastic change. Sure, the Wizards made the playoffs the past four seasons (after going once in the previous 16)….now what? Which move(s) propels the team to the next level? And what is the definition of "next level"? Moving past the 2nd round? Contending for a championship?

So many questions, so many possible answers….and each potential solution comes with its share of risk and angst. To find an answer, you need to determine the problem. Many want to blame coaching. Others point to health. The easy out is to cite to the Curse O' Les Boulez and move on in submission to fate. Whatever your individual case may be, I think we can all reach a consensus that a piece needs to be added, as it appears that most of this past season's personnel will return. The Wizards simply cannot depend on the hope of health and current player improvement heading into next year.

Well, before even determining the problem, you must assess the birds you have in hand. This four part series could prove to be disastrously wrong as I am not any type of salary cap expert, but the internet is a valuable tool with lots and lots of information.

According to Hoopshype.com, ShamSports.com, (I didn't expect ShamSports to have more salary info, but unlike Hoopshype, Sham has better contract numbers for McGuire and Blatche.) the total 07-08 salary for the Washington Wizards was $67,830,278 million, enough for the 11th highest total in the NBA. The Wiz ranked higher than other playoffs teams such as San Antonio (12), Toronto (13), Houston (14), Detroit (16), New Orleans (22), Utah (25), Orlando (26) and Atlanta (28), while falling below non-playoff teams such as New York (2), Miami (5), and Portland (8).

Due to contract exemptions, Washington exceeded the $55.63 million NBA Salary Cap. No biggie, every team in the league did the same with the exception of Charlotte and Memphis. And while the Wizards were not among the 10 NBA teams which exceeded the $67.865 luxury-tax threshold, they were dangerously close.

Assuming that Gilbert Arenas still opts-out like he has claimed (He has until June 30th to decide….Will he hire an agent for negotiations or won't he?), here is who the Wizards have on the books for next season:

The Good News (in that all of these players are very affordable, if not steals)

1) Caron Butler: $9,249,980
2) Brendan Haywood: $5,500,000
3) Darius Songaila: $4,234,000
4) DeShawn Stevenson: $3,616,071
5) Nick Young: $1,602,960
6) Oleksiy Pecherov: $1,446,720
7) Andray Blatche: $2,739,669
8) Dominic McGuire: $711,517

The Bad News (as in both of these guys are overpaid and untradeable….. each has two more years left on their contract after this past season)

9) Antonio Daniels: $6,200,000 (I love the toughness of AD….and I really hate to include him with the 'bad news' as I want him apart of this team until his contract is up…..I just wish the Wizards had a PG with a more consistent jumper and the quickness to play better defense.)

10) Etan Thomas: $6,864,200 (Let's face it, before the heart thing even happened, we all knew that matching Milwaukee's 6-year, $36.6 million contract offer to Thomas in '04 was a reach…..but that was the market. The only other big men in the fold that year were Haywood, Kwame, Ruffin, Samaki Walker and PJ Ramos…the Wiz probably couldn't afford to let Etan walk and make the playoffs the first season of this four year run.)

The Totals: 42,165,117

So how much money will Ernie Grunfeld have to work with? Well, over the past seven seasons, the NBA salary cap has increased by an average of 6.89% per year (going down only one year, -5.2% between 01-02 and 02-03 – the result of the first year of ESPN/ABC's television contract being less than the last year of NBC's contract). In the past three seasons, the average increase has been 8.27%, albeit the percentage of increment has declined in each of those three seasons. But the league seems healthy and BRI (basketball related income) is no doubt on the incline with the emergence of the Ming/Yi dynasties and globalization. So, a conservative estimate would be a 7.5% increase, putting next season's salary cap around $59,802,250. Now understand that my numbers are very rough as I don't have NBA financial information (the cap usually isn't set until early July, and according to the set schedule, players will be able to sign with teams on July 9, 2008). As I simplify equations, let's just say that the luxury tax level will increase from $67.865 to $71.528 million next season.

So, according to these so-called "rough" calculations, the Wizards will be $17,637,133 below the salary cap and $29,362,883 within the luxury tax threshold….and knowing our owner, the Wizards will not exceed this threshold. Is there enough money to get something done? That's next.

Read on - Washington Wizards Future Part II: The Assumptions

Thanks & No Thanks: The 2007-2008 Washington Wizards

I'd stepped away from blogging since elimination Friday. The sad part is that I wasn't incensed after the loss as I was two years ago (perhaps being in attendance for the '06 Damon Jones game had something to do with past tantrums). And last year, I'd fully prepared myself for a Cavalier rout, and thus was out of the country.....the former not necessarily being the cause of the latter. But the outcome of Friday, it was something to which I've become accustomed....I was defeated.

Going into the 07-08 season, I had so much hope for this team.....we all did. But early-on, it turned into a grind. Wizards went down and what coincided was my discovery of how difficult dedicating time to a game blog could be (in total, I missed 10 out of 88 games, the result of zero access). However, as the season continued, I observed a group of ball players with different personalities from varying backgrounds come together to vastly exceed expectations. I started to really enjoy telling the tale of the game. To steal from TNT's Madison Avenue executives, it was live, unscripted, drama.

I could always rest assured in the fact that this Washington Wizards team possessed the ability to leave everything out on the court and bounce back as if previous game-to-game transgressions had never occurred. So as a Wizards fan, I want to look past the disappointment and forward in my knowledge that hope is easy when things could have always been worse.

Pradamaster and Jake the Snake have already given some great thanks on Bullets Forever, but the best thing about 'thank you' is that it can never be said too much.....so here goes:

Thanks....(23 to put the vodoo on #23)

1> To Gilbert Arenas for showing he can learn. I respect the guy because he is genuine about who he is. Maybe his accelerated desire to be back on the court affected the proper rehab of his knee, maybe it didn't. As I've stated before, I think he still has a journey to overcome in terms of maturity. But from what I've seen, I have the utmost confidence that growth can happen.