[Editor's Note: Stephen D. Riley is back with your weekly John Wall threat level tracker. -K.W.]

The highs, the lows; the ups, the downs; the misses, the makes; the blues, yellows, oranges, greens and reds; John Wall’s rookie season is going to be under a heavy microscope. Wall may be his own biggest critic, but you can count he’ll have some added company this year. Fans want him to be Derrick Rose 2.0, Allen Iverson with better practice habits and Rajon Rondo with a better jumper (hold your breath). It was an up and down week for Wall, whose Threat Level (to the rest of the league) will now be analyzed.

Versus The Orlando Magic

Welcome to the league, Rook! Wall spent his inaugural game chasing around Orlando’s bevy of three-point shooters and missing everything in sight as the Wizards were blasted 112-83 on national TV. Wall shot an abysmal 31.6 percent from the field on 6-of-19 shooting, but he did flash his trademark burst of speed and athleticism. He also finished the game with nine assists and three steals, even mixing it up with Magic Superman Dwight Howard in the paint. It wasn’t memorable, it wasn’t pretty, and it wasn’t spectacular, but Wall still finished as the team’s second leading scorer and showed he’ll be the HMIC (head man in charge) in the DMV for the NBA’s team in D.C. His threat level against Orlando, however, was relatively low because the Magic built too large of a lead to really be guarded against Wall.

Versus The Atlanta Hawks

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Much more solid effort from the Wizards, let’s run down some bullet points on the Wiz Kids.

• John Wall ran the show and set an early tone, getting five assists in the first quarter. He only got four assists for the rest of the game, coming short of a double-double with his 28 points. He really looked a lot more comfortable offensively, especially with his jump shot as the game progressed. It did not look deliberately nervous like against Orlando; he even hit a couple threes late in the game.More importantly, after starting 2-8 from the field, Wall hit us with a shot of cappuccino (what Ted Leonsis likened him too during an in-game recorded interview), and sparked his offense with 2:19 left in the third quarter. Including a free-throw Wall hit at the 3:01 mark in the third period , he scored the last 12 points of the quarter for the Wizards while Atlanta just scored six. The game was tied at 70 heading into the fourth.

  Because of Wall, the Wizards stayed competitive. They were out-talented by the Hawks in the end behind efforts from Joe Johnson (25 points, but on 10-23 shooting) and Al Horford (an incredibly efficient 21 points on 6-10 shooting and 9-10 from the free-throw line). But Wall did live up to the “Game Changer” moniker the Wizards dubbed him with after the draft. With his 28 points, Wall got nine assists, only three turnovers, and five rebounds. Maybe we should open the Rookie of the Year award back up.

• JaVale McGee stayed active, and that really needs to be what defines his game. He had a career-high seven blocks to go with seven points, eight rebounds, but five fouls and five turnovers. And I was just as curious as others as to why he wasn’t in at the end of the game to guard Al Horford instead of Yi Jianlian. However, it’s not like Yi did anything completely terrible (Horford hit a jumper in his face and went back door on him for a lob dunk in the last 2:19; Yi also sent him to the foul line with six seconds left) … Basically, McGee could have given up just as many points, but his length and athleticism can lead to more possessions.

  The amount of possessions, mostly defense, that McGee still gets lost on is terribly frustrating. Plus, he really struggles in his ability to set screens. He picked up several fouls (and turnovers) by getting called for moving picks.

• With Gilbert Arenas out and Kirk Hinrich forced to run the point, the Wizards’ offense really struggles. Some of this could be Hinrich, in that he’s not really an offensive threat (if he only was a more consistent shooter), and some of it could be what his teammates are doing. Point is, the team could really use the offensive threat of that Gilbert guy. Not to say that Hinrich won’t be running the point when Arenas is back playing and Wall is resting during a game, but you must wonder if the guy with the ball in his hands should be more of an offensive threat, and if Hinrich is best playing off of that.
• Al Thornton looked great … and a guy motivated to keep his starting job. I’ve questioned Thornton a lot leading up to the season, but if he continues to make hustle plays and find offense closer to the basket, he’s going to get significant run. And mostly because those are things guys like Nick Young seem incapable of. Thornton had 24 points on 10-15 field goals to go with seven rebounds, four offensive.
  Thornton took just four shots from beyond 16 feet and only made one of them. He made the two shots he took from 16 feet out. He took the remainder of his nine shots in the paint, making seven of them. Last year, 4.2 of Thornton’s nine field-goal attempts came from 16 feet and beyond.
• Andray Blatche put up some numbers, but often didn’t look great in the process. He had 18 points on 9-19 shooting and didn’t earn a single trip to the free-throw line. He managed just seven rebounds in 34 minutes of play and had four turnovers. When he did manage to get into the paint on offense, he mostly shot fade-away jumpers. Blatche tried to post up a couple of times, but his actions are too slow and he’s not strong with the ball. Facing up right now doesn’t always benefit Blatche because he’s so out of shape.

  Overall, his ultra-softness inside makes me really question whether the team should have signed him to an extension. John Wall may be the team’s savior … guess that would make Blatche like Angel Soft toilet paper. But for several more games, an unforeseen amount of time I supposes, we get to keep saying that Blatche is out of shape and that he’s “still young.” Great.

• In terms of Blatche’s buddy, Nick Young, more than not, he doesn’t seem to have much contribution to the game. If he’s not scoring (because we know he’s not passing … he seems completely incapable of seeing the flow of the game develop, such as with about seven minutes left in the second quarter when Yi Jianlian was in perfect position to receive a pass on the re-post, but Young put his head down, dribbled a couple times and jacked up a shot). Young went 0-2 from the field with a block and a turnover in 11 total minutes.
• Yi Jianlian had an okay game in that he hit some jumpers, but he only got one rebound in 24 minutes … pretty bad for the player I bragged could be the team’s best rebounder. You can tell he’s out there trying, and doesn’t look as lost as he’s been accused of in the past, but he’s also not the presence that one would hope a player of his size brings.

[Here, Phil Chenier wears a "Lumberg Collar" while a lobster tempts Steve Buckhantz with buttery lobster flavor.]

Not only will this Wizards team have the opportunity to grow each game, they’ll have the opportunity to grow each quarter, each minute, each play. And part of this is why Thursday’s embarrassment against the Orlando Magic was so disappointing, several players didn’t take the opportunity to get better. Some … no, most … and by default, the entire team (because that’s how they win and lose), came out in the third quarter with the same lack of focus and energy that plagued their squad for the first 24 minutes.

But those opportunities are behind the Wizards. No sense dwelling on wasted opportunity when there will always be another one around the corner, such tonight’s game against the Atlanta Hawks. Of course, new opportunity doesn’t preclude us from reflecting upon the past, especially when the statistics start compiling to show who isn’t doing their job.

Nonetheless, enjoy and celebrate these new opportunities, especially because this young team will be fun to watch, they just need to know how to channel their efforts. And tonight, lest we forget, will really be the first “official” game of the season … because the hometown television voices of Steve Buckhantz and Phil Chenier will be back in action, ready to guide us through the basketball that we love.

Phil, with your smooth voice that’s sure to have talked a mean game to a lady within the 24-second shot clock before, and roots in the team’s history, we are ready to be kindled by your expression of the finer things in basketball.

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The Wizards are what we thought they were. They also showed a side that we didn’t imagine them to be. Or perhaps naively didn’t consider.

The goal over the summer was to get bigger, tougher … in comes Kevin Seraphin and Trevor Booker via the draft. Unfortunately, the rest of the front-line is much too frail. Of course, that was magnified by the juggernaut Magic, but frail in every sense nonetheless.

And it was evident that the team was short of shooters coming into the season, again, magnified without Gilbert Arenas for the opener. The following charts express long distance experience coming into 2010-11:

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My DVR knew what was happening. At some point very late in the game, it decided to stop recording the Wizards-Magic in favor of a show it’s programmed to record, It’s Always Sunny In Philadelphia. In the process, the game as captured up to that point got lost in the DVR stratosphere, putting a halt to my ability to go back and further analyze the game visually.

Probably for the best though, re-watching the low-lights of a 112-83 blowout loss isn’t exactly the most productive thing in the world. In most senses, it’s a game that Flip Saunders and his team (and Wizards fans) should just forget and move on (but not without an intense film session, one would hope — after all, Washington has to face Orlando three more times this season).

But in other senses, there were some very concerning displays last night. The season’s debut of several players who have been with the team the longest represented nothing more than the status quo, which either means little progress was made by them over the summer to more closely connect to the game cerebrally, or that they just have a low capability/potential to do so in the first place. Observations on those players and their situations will surely come (and you can read some thoughts from Rashad already).

No, this post is dedicated to the only player who really played worth a damn Thursday night. When your average Joe looks at the box score, he might assume that Cartier Martin got all of his points in garbage time. No sir. One only needs to look at a huge block Martin had against Dwight Howard to know that’s not true:

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As a Washington Wizards blogger, I really never thought I’d write this, but for some perspective on the Wizards loss to the Magic tonight, fans should look no further than LeBron James and the Miami Heat.

Despite all the promising offseason moves the Miami Heat made, there was a lack of chemistry on display in their opener against the Celtics. Wade, Bosh and LeBron were battling unfamiliarity, Mike Miller was injured, there were jitters,  and they were facing a  Celtics team whose core had been together for three years.  The Heat looked out of sync much of the night, and although they were in great position to win the game towards the end, they fell just short of victory.

That night, everyone picked the Heat apart, and discussed why they couldn’t win it all and why they would not dominate as so many of those same writers and bloggers had picked them to do before the season. Then the very next night, the Heat rolled to victory over a Sixers team who presented much more favorable match-ups, and the opening night loss to the Celtics was temporarily forgotten.

So let’s bring this around to the Washington Wizards.

As Kyle pointed out earlier in the week, the Orlando Magic present matchup nightmares for this Wizards squad.  McGee is not strong enough to guard Dwight Howard, Blatche isn’t quick enough to guard Rashard Lewis, no one on the Wizards roster can guard a motivated Vince Carter, and Jameer Nelson is savvy enough to cause problems for rookie John Wall.  When you throw in the fact that Gilbert Arenas was unavailable due to injury, this match up had all the ingredients of a blowout..and it didn’t disappoint.

The Wizards shot and defended horribly, they never utilized their strength, which is the running game, and they were blown out of the gym 112-83 by a team that promises to contend for an NBA title.  But it’s just one game.  Saturday night they play an Atlanta Hawks team that isn’t nearly as good, and then on Tuesday night, Arenas will be back (hopefully) and they will play a 76ers team that’s weaker than Atlanta. The bottom line?  There’s no need to panic. Read more »

A D.C. pic, links and commentary …

[Meridian Hill Park - NW Washington, D.C. - K. Weidie]

Opening night is just about here, I’m pretty much at a loss for words. I’m just ready to sit back and watch basketball. Who knows what path this year’s team will take, we’ll find out soon enough that it might not matter … as long as they prove their hustle and growth.

LINKS!

I recently took part in a Wizards round-table, go check it out.
[DC Pro Sports Report]

The answer is simple: the Wizards are John Wall’s team.
[Bullets Forever]

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{flickr/draggin}

The Intro.

- by Arish Narayen

Over the past several years, NBA organizations have increasingly integrated advanced statistics into their decision-making. But exactly how teams employ these statistics in personnel decisions — that is privileged information. The NBA’s trend towards quantitative analysis is seemingly personified by Houston Rockets GM Daryl Morey. It is easy to see why Morey is a darling to stat nerds everywhere: he never played in the NBA, and he got his bachelor’s degree (in Computer Science) at Northwestern, and an MBA from MIT. Morey also serves as chair of the MIT Sloan Sports Analytic Conference. As NBA teams, and media (bloggers) seek new ways to evaluate players, attendance at the Sloan Conference has grown.

In Michael Lewis’ NY Times profile on Shane Battier in February 2009, Morey and Lewis had the following exchange: Read more »

After Tuesday’s practice adjourned, and before the Wiz Kids headed to Orlando, Hilton Armstrong, Kevin Seraphin and Andray Blatche got in some extra work, battling each other with pseudo post-moves under the supervision of assistant coach Gene Banks.

It’s hard to notice (via the video quality of a Flip Cam), but Blatche was hamming it up a bit from the get-go, looking at the camera, etc. So Armstrong and Serphin followed suit a couple times. It was all in good fun … and they are all kids (Armstrong will turn 26 at the end of November, Blatche turned 24 at the end of August and Seraphin will turn 21 in early December).

Still, one sometimes can’t help but feel that, speaking specifically about Blatche, he has a very long way to go until he’s looked upon as a team leader with any amount of seriousness. And I’m not really drawing from this instance of post-practice post-work, but rather from my complete observations regarding the serious nature in which he operates, or lack thereof.

Again, the guy is just 24, albeit, a 24 year-old who still protests about running as a result of end-of-practice particulars, etc. (again, not completely conveyed in the video). In the end, a rebuilding team has time … you just wonder how much patience. Fortunately, there is also plenty of time for that patience to be tested … mainly by Messrs. Arenas and Blatche. Gentlemen, do your best.

Not too long ago, I found that the Wikipedia page for Flip Saunders listed his real first name as “Flippery” — Wikipedia hijinks … it gave me a chuckle. His real name is Phillip.

On a related note, I recently wrote something for the individual team previews that Basketball-Reference.com is doing. I was supposed to discuss strengths and weaknesses, which I aimed to do, and did to a minor extent, but when all was said and done, it ended up being somewhat of a preview on Phillip “Flip” D. Saunders, Wizards head coach.

Hence, I’m re-purposing what I wrote for BBR for the first part of this post. Sure, it’s kind of “iffy” of me to post something I wrote for somewhere else here (not like I haven’t done it before). But I know you’ll go check out the rest of Basketball-Reference’s preview on the Wizards anyway, which includes projected per-36 minute stats and some team-related polls to vote on.

Looking Forward

The Wizards’ biggest strength is also their biggest weakness (and please don’t picture Michael Scott or Dwight Shrute saying this … I’m being serious): Youth.

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A John Wall dunk, links and commentary ….

LINKS!

Al Thornton, Nick Young and Yi Jianlian are likely to enter the Summer of ’11 with the Wizards holding the option on their qualifying offers, aka as restricted free-agents. No big deal here. Each is vastly unproven so it doesn’t make a ton of sense to lock into any of them for the unknown future.
[Wizards Insider]

Ted Leonsis has opening-night jitters. “Throw the kids into the deep end of the pool; let them swim!,” he says. Gosh, I hope there is a lifeguard around to combat what appears to be a poolside bully throwing all these damn kids in the pool. But really, I think the kids can swim, it’s just time to see how well. I’m looking forward to it.
[Ted's Take]

Leonsis continues to stand by Arenas … probably until he doesn’t … whatever that means. Maybe a trade or something.
[DC Sports Bog]

Speaking of Arenas, David Aldridge on NBA.com has all sorts of opinions about him. First Aldridge says hope that Arenas has emerged a changed man via last season has “evaporated” via sore knee lies. Then D.A. says, “I hope I’m proven wrong,” but then says, “Not holding my breath.” Then Aldridge compares Arenas to a deadbeat dad four years behind on child-support who is also making moonshine in his basement. Finally, he says the Wizards should give Arenas the Jamaal Tinsley treatment and just tell him to stay at home. Seems like an odd amount of twists and turns from D.A., with an ultimate overboard reaction — that is, until Arenas does something else stupid, I guess.
[NBA.com]

The new Free Darko book on NBA history is out and it’s pretty damn awesome. I was fortunate enough to get an advance copy and am just about finished. So expect to hear more about it soon. In the meantime, you might as well go ahead and order it. Also check out the FD player power rankings … where John Wall is 3rd, Gilbert Arenas is 20th, Andray Blatche is 31st and JaVale McGee is 34th.
[Free Darko]

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Sure, I pretty much said the Wizards would lose to the Magic on Thursday in my last post. But there’s always an ‘if’ … and Gilbert Arenas is just that. Coming into this season, I’ve been confident that Arenas would be healthy enough to be a very effective scorer. Some are concerned about his knee, but if the mystique of Tim Grover proves true, time off due to suspension only made the surgical repairs stronger, with more rest.

We’re talking about a guy who scored 45 points in a game last season — and 25 or more points in 10 out of 32 games, seven of those games coming in December when Arenas started to heat up. The Wizards went 4-6 in the win/loss column when Gil scored 25 or more … which I guess isn’t bad, considering.

No, instead of his offense, what I’ve wanted to see from Gilbert is if his defensive legs can prove something other than the norm, for him, especially after Flip Saunders has backed Arenas’ defensive capability so much. People are already afraid that the twists and turns will continue with Gilbertology. Hopefully, lingering groin and ankle injuries won’t contribute more of that feeling you get when the plane or roller coaster takes a sudden drop.

But if Gilbert is merely a bench ornament in Orlando, the name of the Wizards’ game will still be to out-trick the Magic with strong and dominant guard play — pressure bursts pipes and speed makes it worse. Hello John Wall.

An upset toppling like a good ol’ Pyramid Scheme in the new Amway Center isn’t beyond comprehension. What if Dwight Howard gets in foul trouble, or perhaps is moved by the spirit to pick up a couple of those ‘new’ technicals? Who else do the Orlando Magic have that can out-basketball the Wiz kids? Vince Carter? I imagine that Al Thornton is a threat to give him the ‘Melo Treatment (meaning the one time Thornton played stellar defense against Carmelo Anthony).

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The Washington Wizards held their last preseason practice at the Verizon Center on Tuesday afternoon before heading down to Orlando for Thursday’s regular season opener, a national television showcase against the Magic on TNT.

If you’re a Wizards fan, you might be losing sleep over the match-up nightmares Orlando specifically poses against Washington. Okay, never mind, you’re probably dreaming about John Wall — it’s good be distracted, for now. Plus, I imagine the coach of a rebuilding team is still slightly more concerned with how his own players follow his instructions than countering what a great team like Orlando does.

Of course, match-up-wise, we don’t know who Flip Saunders is going to start just yet, or if Gilbert Arenas will be available because of soreness in his ankle that caused him to sit out of practice on both Monday and Tuesday, which piggy-backed on a groin injury he experienced in the fifth preseason game against the Milwaukee Bucks that caused him to miss the last two games on the slate.

“From what happened before, you’ll know our starters 10 minutes before the game. That’s our new policy,” the coach quipped on Tuesday. ‘Before’ being when Arenas lied about soreness in his knee.

But the three-guard lineup isn’t necessarily the concern in this instance — it’s how Andray Blatche and JaVale McGee will be able to match-up with the inside/outside combination of Rashad Lewis and Dwight Howard. Blatche, who already floats away from the basket too much on offense (for a team that will be desperate for paint scoring), might find himself playing even more away from the basket in keeping track of Lewis on defense.

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A D.C. pic, links and commentary …

[Dupont Circle Metro, NW D.C. - K. Weidie]

The Wizards are going to start the season with a roster of 15 that includes Cartier Martin, Lester Hudson and Hamady N’diaye. On a developing team, this was the exact, right thing to do. Anything less would have been uncivilized. And if it happens where the Wizards need an extra roster spot to complete an unbalanced trade, I’m sure something can be figured out when and if the team reaches that juncture.
[Wizards Insider]

So Gilbert Arenas shaved his beard. For the record, I think Beards > Long pointy sideburns.
[Gilbertology]

Michael Lee has another good player profile, this time on Kevin Seraphin, which includes a funny quote from someone familiar with the French speaker, Rodrigue Beaubois of the Dallas Mavericks. Beaubois says, “He’s a beast. Physically, he’s amazing. He’s very strong. He’s a big baby, that’s for sure. I really think he’s going to be good for [the Wizards].” A big baby.
[Washington Post]

Now check out Seraphin’s rap in Creole.
[Wizards Insider]

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I’m not really a gambling man. I’ll go to Las Vegas, throw down small-time money on sports futures, sometimes randomly, sometimes not so randomly (thank you New Orleans Saints for winning the Super Bowl — not so random; let’s go Cam Newton and the Auburn Tigers! — sorta random). I’ll also frivolously play roulette, hoping to recapture the magic that a run with ‘Red 23′ (the Michael Jordan number, clearly) once brought me … never have. And oh yea, I’ll play poker (usually Texas Hold’em) like any other red or blue blooded American, but haven’t in a long time.

Gambling is an okay form of entertainment. And if you don’t see it that way and don’t stay within your personal financial limits (aka, your entertainment budget) you’re going to be in a whole lot of trouble. Now here are some sports odds involving the NBA and Washington Wizards via Bodog.com … (how about that for a seamless transition?)

The Larry O’Brien Trophy.

The Miami Heat have 17/10 odds to win the NBA Championship. The LA Lakers follow with 5/2 odds and the Boston Celtics come in third with 17/2 odds. It drops off after that with the Orlando Magic at 13/1 and the OKC Thunder at 14/1.

The Wizards fall below 17 teams with 100/1 odds to win the title, which is the same odds held by the Charlotte Bobcats, Memphis Grizzlies and New Jersey Nets. Worse odds than the Wizards: the Pistons, Clippers, Warriors, Pacers, 76ers, Kings, Cavaliers, Timberwolves and Raptors — Cleveland, Minnesota and Toronto all having 200/1 odds to win the 2011 NBA Championship. The T’Wolves must feel especially special, if you will, because they didn’t lose a superstar, yet are expected to be as crappy as the Cavs and Raps. Read more »