[D.C. Council: setting the scene, rating the starters, assessing the subs, providing the analysis, and catching anything that you may have missed. Unlike the real DC Council, everything here is on the table. Game No. 13, Washington Wizards vs Portland Trail Blazers; contributors: Kyle Weidie and John Converse Townsend from the Verizon Center and Arish Narayen from behind the T.V.]

“Charles is going to be Charles.” Martell Webster on Charles Barkley calling the Wizards the Washington Generals. Read more »

[D.C. Council: setting the scene, rating the starters, assessing the subs, providing the analysis, and catching anything that you may have missed. Unlike the real DC Council, everything here is on the table. Game No. 7, Washington Wizards at Dallas Mavericks; contributors: Rashad Mobley, Arish Narayen and Kyle Weidie from behind the T.V.]

PARGO’D Read more »

[D.C. Council: setting the scene, rating the starters, assessing the subs, providing the analysis, and catching anything that you may have missed. Unlike the real DC Council, everything here is on the table. Game No. 3, Washington Wizards at Boston Celtics; contributors: Rashad Mobley, the return of Arish Narayen, and Kyle Weidie.]

Moral Victory or Encouraging Loss? Randy Wittman and Friends, Nov. 7, 2012 Read more »

[John Wall weaves his way to the hoop and draws a foul versus the Oklahoma City Thunder.]

It is axiomatic that the NBA is a copycat League, especially given the incestuous nature of most coaching/front office jobs. This season, there is a stunning lack of parity: eight teams have a realistic chance of winning the title (and that’s being a bit generous). The other twenty-two are either a) borderline top-tier, b) making aggressively mediocre moves, c) rebuilding, or d) owned by Michael Jordan. For rebuilding teams, the Oklahoma City Thunder are the gold standard.

An NBA front office can only pitch a Rebuild to a fan base for so long. Most passionate fans will eventually get tired of seeing a middling product on the court — there has to be ‘A Plan.’ Today, the language of The Rebuild abounds. Organizations are increasingly looking to the Thunder as a model that must be emulated in order to resurrect their franchises. Indeed, Oklahoma City’s ‘blue print’ is the prototypical example of a successful NBA rebuild.

Last year, the Thunder were a Pau Gasol offensive rebound away from forcing Game 7 against the Lakers. This year, at the trading deadline, Thunder GM Sam Presti added Kendrick Perkins to an already formidable, athletic front-court, presumably giving Oklahoma City the size to match up with any playoff contender. Hailed by many to be a case of Presti-fleecing-Ainge, the Perkins acquisition represents the culmination of a four year rebuilding process by the Thunder. After extending Perkins’ contract, the pieces are in place for several years of relevance.

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“We fell behind and lost some of our confidence. We didn’t make plays, we didn’t make shots. Their guards got in the paint and destroyed us.” – Flip Saunders

On Wednesday night, the Wizards lost 109-97 to the Philadelphia 76ers, falling to 0-17 on the road. Despite Andre Iguodala’s absence and the entire Wizards roster being healthy for the first time, the script was familiar: 1) Washington keeps the game close until some point during the fourth quarter; 2) during a timeout huddle, the players collectively decide that “defense” is no longer as important as taking “contested, off-balance shots”; 3) Washington loses in a slow, plodding fashion, as the opposing team shoots free throws for the last three minutes of the game.

I tried something new last night: while drinking (not the new part), I attempted to chart each Wizards’ offensive possession. Though my notes deteriorated late in the fourth quarter as my IV of Knob Creek was nearly tapped out, there was some wisdom to be found in my possession tracking. The results of that sophomoric effort, and other random tidbits, in bullet form:

• Numbers that seemed important prior to the game: 1) the Wizards winning their last five games versus the 76ers, including two overtime games this season; 2) this was the 76ers first home game since December 17th; 3) the Wizards were 6.5 point underdogs
• The Wizards scored 97 points on 90 possessions. By my primitive math skills, this amounts to a 107.8 ORtg (points per 100 possessions), good for 11th in the League if Washington played an Iguodala-less Philadelphia for 82 games a season.
• Washington’s ball movement was good last night. The team recorded 26 assists on 40 made field goals and committed only 12 turnovers. But, some of the turnovers could have been avoided: three TO’s from Lewis/Blatche/Hinrich came on passes to no one in particular, where the ball sailed out of bounds. Hinrich tried to force a couple passes in the pick-and-roll, which were easily intercepted. Lewis was also called for a charge three times, though two of those were questionable.
• Kirk Hinrich, streak-shooter — he started 5-5 from the field and finished 5-11, going 0-4 with two turnovers in the fourth quarter.
• Kyle already did a nice job chronicling Andray Blatche’s amazing ability to put up a decent stat line and still frustrate the hell out of you. My game chart suggests that Blatche’s ability in this regard comes from his propensity to ‘get himself started’ in the offense by taking long 2s, making no effort to get to the free throw line, and letting Elton Brand dribble and rebound around him.
• See: Kevin Seraphin’s nine minutes of playing time in place of Blatche, a substitution which came after Brand dropped 10 points plus a couple offensive rebounds on ‘Dray in the first quarter.
• Reason why the Wizards lost: 0.567. This number represents the 76ers free throw rate (free throw attempts divided by field goal attempts) last night. Philly shot an absurd 38 free throws on 67 field goal attempts, while Washington shot 18 free throws on 82 field goal attempts. John Wall and Kirk Hinrich accounted for 11 of the 18 free throw attempts.
• As point guards, Wall and Hinrich cannot be the only players making a concerted effort to get to the rim, especially when they are the team’s best (only?) perimeter defenders. When Wall or Hinrich misses in the lane, it can lead to easy transition opportunities for the opposition. Last night, Jrue Holiday killed the Wizards in precisely these kinds of transition situations. Holiday finished the game with 26 points on 10-14 shooting, four rebounds, and nine assists.
• Something which Flip Saunders should read and send to all the players: this Sports Illustrated article on Ohio State — the team that leads the nation in free throw rate. Can you imagine if each Wizards player had to review the film from each of their fouls? McGee and Blatche would never leave the team facility.
• Good quote from the SI article. To borrow a phrase from the critically acclaimed film Don’t Be a Menace to South Central While Drinking Your Juice in the Hood — “MESSAGE!”:

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Another day, another Wizards’ road loss. But unlike Sunday’s game in San Antonio, Washington actually had a chance to beat Houston. In a matchup of two teams going in opposite directions — Houston looking to win its season-best fifth consecutive game and get back to the .500 mark; Washington still winless on the road and losers of nine of their last ten —  the Rockets were nine point favorites. I mention the spread only because the Wizards beat the Rockets by seven points in Washington on November 10. Clearly, a lot has changed since John Wall recorded his first career triple double, as the Wizards have set a new standard for futility on the road (0-15 away from home this season; 16 straight road losses going back to last season, a franchise record).

Some observations from the loss:

• Andray Blatche had a nice game, going 7-15 from the field and finishing with 17 points, 14 rebounds, and three steals. The rebounds were an encouraging sign, given Blatche’s seeming unwillingness to mix it up in the post against physical front courts. He also had a nice steal off an inbounds pass in the third quarter, which led to an easy layup. However, Blatche’s turnovers continue to be an issue: he had six TO’s last night, and is averaging close to three TO’s per game on the season. The bulk of these turnovers came on offensive fouls, as Rockets defenders simply stepped in front of several Blatche dribble-drives, and the contact (as usual) was not resolved in Andray’s favor after he put his head down.
• Blatche’s nightclub pal JaVale McGee had an uneven game. Epic Vale shot 1-5 from the field, and only played 24 minutes as the Rockets used a smaller, faster lineup in the second half. On one particularly miserable offensive sequence near the ten minute mark of the second quarter, JaVale secured the rebound after a Nick Young miss, missed a layup, grabbed his own miss, and then missed all of the rim on a second, fadeaway attempt. Phil Chenier called the last shot a “pass,” but I think he was being generous. But, McGee did work on defense and on the offensive glass; he had three blocks, altered several other shots, and grabbed four offensive rebounds. He also did a nice job staying in front of the Rockets’ guards when caught in the pick-and-roll.One ridiculous play: with about ten seconds left in the third quarter, McGee blocked an Aaron Brooks 3-point attempt, when it appeared that JaVale had no chance of closing out. Instead, McGee’s Wookie-wingspan prevailed. Also worth noting — JaVale led the team in plus/minus at plus-5.
• John Wall appeared to be unaffected by his ailing right knee, as he put a lot of pressure on Houston’s defense, both in transition and off the pick-and-roll. He finished the game with 13 points, five rebounds, six assists, and two blocks. Though he shot only 2-7 from the field, Wall got to the free-throw line 13 times. He also handled Kyle Lowry‘s physical defense well, countering with a combination of hesitation moves and pure speed. Wall’s defense on Aaron Brooks was solid, as Brooks did not look comfortable all night and only shot 5-15 from the field.
• Rashard Lewis started the game at small forward and led the team in minutes with 43. Lewis finished the game with 12 points, nine rebounds, and five assists on 6-16 shooting. He missed both of his 3-point attempts badly, but Lewis made some nice decisions with the ball, finding the open man with quick passes. Given the Wizards’ troubles with ball movement, the presence of experienced decision makers in Lewis and Josh Howard is encouraging.
• With regards to ball movement — it seemed to be a lot better last night, as the Wizards seemingly ran their offense quicker than in the previous two games. Note: Washington scored 80 points in each of the previous two games, so the bar was set pretty low.
• Kirk Hinrich turned in another good performance, with 19 points on 7-15 shooting and five rebounds. Fourteen of Kirk’s 19 points came in the first half. After it became abundantly clear that Nick Young could not guard Kevin Martin (Martin dropped 10 points on Nick in the first quarter), Kirk defended Martin fairly well. Martin finished with 20 points for the game. Outlier stat of the night: Hinrich had zero assists last night, this after averaging nine assists per game since December 15.
• Josh Howard (23 minutes) certainly looks to be taking over Al Thornton‘s (8 minutes) playing time. I can’t say this is a bad thing, given Thornton’s three-point shooting woes (3-20 from deep on the season) and inability to do anything other than shoot contested jumpers.
• Reason why the Wizards lost: they did not score in the last 2:40 of the game, and were outscored 32-20 in the fourth quarter. The three-point defense also failed down the stretch, as threes by Brooks and Martin sealed the game for the Rockets late.
• Only the Wizards’ team defense could make Shane Battier look like Kobe Bryant — Battier finished with 15 points on 6-7 shooting. Battier got into the lane repeatedly, and made several tough shots off the backboard. Somewhere, Daryl Morey was laughing his ass off.
• Kirk Hinrich’s black-eye is awesome. I wonder what color it will be next game.

[John Wall glides past each and every one of the Charlotte Bobcats, breezy.]

I chose to spotlight John Wall for Friday night’s home game versus the Charlotte Bobcats. It was a difficult decision — choosing between Wall and his seemingly favorable match-up versus DJ Augustin, or Andray Blatche in his intense battle of the ‘shapely’ four men versus Boris Diaw. I settled on Wall.

This was a typical Wizards-Bobcats game, the Wiz snatched defeat from the jaws of victory by falling apart over the last seven minutes of the fourth quarter. Gerald Wallace put in work on hapless Washington defenders (9-15 field-goals, 25 points and 14 rebounds) while shutting down Al Thornton so badly that Al left the game with a stomach problem. In general, the Wizards’ offense looked out of sync, as there was a lot of settling for jump shots and not enough attempts in the paint. The silver lining: the game was still relatively close despite an abysmal shooting night from Gilbert Arenas. Also, this is what an off-night looks like for John Wall: 6-16 field-goals, 13 points, four rebounds, 11 assists and four steals.

There is some bad news, though. John Wall’s inconsistent shot doesn’t concern me — clearly, that’s part of the growing pains of being a rookie in his seventh NBA game. What concerns me about Friday’s game is how, at times, Wall looked disinterested in defending Augustin.

Wall began the game by playing very far off of him, this would become one theme of the night.  Another theme, when the Wizards were on offense, it became very clear that Charlotte would go under every ball screen to protect the paint, basically leaving Wall open, as usual. Keeping with this concept, Wall attempted two three-pointers in the first three minutes of the game, missing on both. But he had no trouble finding his teammates early, once finding a trailing Andray Blatche on the right side of the floor with a sweet dish off the back of his palm.

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ESPN’s John Hollinger and Chad Ford recently completed the latest edition of their ‘Future Power Rankings.’ (Found here, requires ESPN Insider). Like previous versions, they begin their rankings with the following introduction:

The Future Power Rankings are ESPN Insider’s projection of the on-court success expected for each team during the 2011-12, 2012-13 and 2013-14 seasons.

Each of the NBA’s 30 teams received an overall Future Power Rating of 0 to 1,000, based on how well we expect each team to perform in the three seasons following this season.

In determining the Future Power Rating, Hollinger and Ford rated each team in five categories. The sum of those ratings = a team’s Future Power Rating. From the article, here is an explanation of each category: Read more »

[Editor's note: Below is third piece Arish Narayen has written for TAI. He first broke down the Wizards' small forward situation in early July, and then wrote about the Wizards' third summer league game against the Mavericks. -Kyle]

If you haven’t had a chance to read this study linked on TrueHoop Monday, check it out. In the piece, Neil Paine of Basketball-Reference.com analyzes how NBA players performed against above and below average defenses in 2009-10.

Paine begins by ranking each team’s defense by using a defensive version of the Simple Rating System, taking into account margin of victory, strength of schedule, and home-court effects. Taken from the article, here are the relevant bits about the Wizards:

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