Jordan F-ing Crawford.

“That guy.”

What IS his deal?

Playing 27.1 minutes per game this season and averaging 17.9 field goals per 36 minutes while shooting an effective-FG percentage of 0.450 doesn’t exactly put Jordan in good company, historically.

According to the Basketball-Reference.com database, 12 such NBA players since the 1991-92 season have averaged 25 to 30 minutes per game, attempted at least 15 field goals per 36 minutes, and have had an eFG% less than 0.455. Those players, ranked by Win Shares Per 48 Minutes:

1. Isaiah Rider – 0.86 – 1988-99 Portland Trailblazers (13.7 PER)
2. Malik Sealy – 0.62 – 1994-95 LA Clippers (14.7)
3. Jamal Crawford – 0.59 – 2011-12 Portland Trailblazers (14.7)
4. Michael Redd – 0.59 – 2009-10 Milwaukee Bucks (12.1)
5. Josh Howard – 0.54 – 2009-10 Dallas/Washington (12.7)
6. Larry Hughes – 0.36 – 1999-00 (14.7)
7. Jordan Crawford – 0.25 – 2011-12 Philadelphia/Golden State (14.9)
8. Jerry Reynolds – 0.25 – 1991-92 Orlando Magic (13.9)
9. Bonzi Wells – 0.23 – 2003-04 Portland/Memphis (13.0)
10. Kemba Walker – 0.17  - 2011-12 Charlotte Bobcats (15.3)
11. Dejuan Wagner – 0.11 – 2002-03 Cleveland Cavaliers (10.9)
12. Vernon Maxwell – negative-0.001 – 1996-97 San Antonio Spurs (11.8)

Most fans, coaches, GMs and owners would shudder if forced to rely on any of these guys on their team– a group of players who managed to stick around in the league for various periods of time nonetheless.

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NBA coaches are constantly tinkering with their five-man units. Whether someone starts or not really takes a back seat to the primary concern of which players work well together, and only then, how match-ups can be exploited. In the very least, lineup data can tell us which combinations of Wizards have best played together with success (must less whom they are doing it against… high- or low-quality opponents). The lineup statistics for these 2011-12 Wizards also tell of a failed plan from the start. But if the ultimate goal was to get a top four pick in the 2012 NBA Draft, then maybe Ernie Grunfeld & Co. haven’t failed after all.

Eighteen different five-man units have played 25 or more minutes together for Washington this season. Below is the distribution of those lineups ranked by minutes played, and including the plus/minus per 48 minutes for that lineup. Yes, one lineup this season played 41 minutes together and would have been down by 38.4 points had they hypothetically played an entire game together against hypothetical competition. It’s hypothetically pretty sad. I’ve bolded the five lineups with a positive plus/minus per 48 minutes, if that helps.

OK, so what if we were to rank those 18 lineups by best to worst plus/minus per 48 minutes, but hiding all names except for those of JaVale McGee, Nick Young, Andray Blatche and Nene. What if…

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[Pierce showing his bounciness, flexibility in unique pre-Draft workout. Courtesy SI Vault.]

When the Wizards have the 10^th pick in the NBA Draft, we get a player like … Jarvis Hayes.

The Celtics? They get an All-Star like Joe Johnson—or even better, a future Hall of Famer like Paul Pierce.

Perhaps it’s the Curse of Les Boulez versus the Luck of the Irish. Either way, Pierce is historically great—and as these charts show, in ways you might not have guessed.

Read more »

Nenê tries to defend John Wall,
which won’t be happening anymore, aside from practice hoops.

[photo: K. Weidie, Truth About It.net]

So that’s that. Wizards General Manager Ernie Grunfeld finally found dance partners in the Clippers and Nuggets in a three-team deal just moments before today’s trading deadline. JaVale McGee has disappeared into thin air, now a member of the Nuggets along with Ronny Turiaf (we hardly knew ye). Nick Young’s career in D.C. has gone up in smoke as he packs his bags for home, sunny California, now a member of contending Clip Show. And Nenê Hilario, one of the league’s most underrated players, will make his way to the nation’s capital as the Wizards’ starting center, along with L.A.’s Brian Cook and a second-round pick …

Which makes me wonder: what will become of Kevin Seraphin?

Seraphin is a tough dude. He can rebound, block shots and bang—he said so much on draft night in 2010, when he was selected 17th overall by the Chicago Bulls. Seraphin, along with Kirk Hinrich and cash considerations, was bumped to D.C. in a draft-night trade in exchange for the rights to Vladimir Veremeenko, a Wizards second-round pick in 2006.

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[Editor's note: This is the TAI debut of Dan Diamond (@ddiamond) -- long-time reader, retired anonymous blogger, and the best pound-for-pound rebounder in DC -- (Dan's claims, not mine). Dan is here to discuss Cavs rookie Kyrie Irving, who's just 19-years old and having fun. For instance, as his coach, Byron Scott, spoke with the media at the Verizon Center tonight, telling them how Irving would be in the starting lineup (after missing last night's game with the flu), Irving jumped on a nearby service cart and honked the horn. Verizon Center security got tough with him, let Irving know that he shouldn't do that. The kid played tough, too, at first, but the exchange ultimately ended with smiles. Later, in the locker room, as Luke Harangody related the story to another Cavs teammate, Irving explained that that's just who he is right now, a 19-year old, and to check back when he's 22. I'll let Dan Diamond take it away. -Kyle W.]

[org. picture via espn.com]

Getting old isn’t fun, but there’s a silver lining for golfers: They can dream of one day “shooting their age“—a rare feat when a golfer’s age is the same or older than his day’s score.

There isn’t an equivalent trick for NBA players; shooting 35-percent from the floor when you’re thirty-five-years old won’t impress anyone. (And will certainly cost you a job. Except with the Bobcats.)

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Numbers, stats and ratings that help define the Washington Wizards season thus far… John Wall’s ability to find offense at the rim (and finish); the Wizards’ ability, as a team, to shoot and pass to each other at certain points of the game; and Truth About It.net’s on-going DC Council 3-Star player ratings for each game.

JOHN WALL at the rim.

Wall’s offense is finishing at the rim, so let’s check on how he’s doing and who he compares to.

Among all NBA players, of any height, who have played in at least 20 games this season, John Wall is tied for 12th in average attempts at the rim per game (5.9, tied with Derrick Rose and Gerald Wallace; Wall’s attempts are up from 5.3 last season). This is more than Andrew Bynum, Nene Hilario and Rajon Rondo (each averaging 5.8), but fewer than Blake Griffin and Greg Monroe (who are both tied for the league lead with 7.7 FGA at the rim per game), Tyreke Evans, David Lee, DeMarcus Cousins, Dwyane Wade, Nikola Pekovic, Dwight Howard, Russell Westbrook, Kevin Love and LeBron James (6.6).

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When Washington and Toronto matched-up in Canada last Friday night, Amir Johnson of the Raptors came off the bench to score 18 points and grab 13 rebounds in a 106-89 win over the Wizards. ”They’re making him look like an All-Star,” someone probably said, also noting that this Washington franchise has seemed peculiarly deft doing so over the years. During my time following the team since 1990, nights like Johnson’s certainly don’t seem like an anomaly. But just how good is Washington at making otherwise mediocre opponents look like All-Stars? And how does Washington compare to other teams?

I used the glorious Basketball-Reference.com database to search for answers. First I needed to set up some requirements:

1. Since Johnson is the subject, I wanted someone who has scored at least 18 points and grabbed 10 rebounds off the bench. Certainly a guard could look like an All-Star with 17 points and 8 assists off the bench, as would a non-starter scoring 25 points in a reserve role (ignoring other stats), but I eliminated them for this particular exercise. Also, you could certainly have a no-name starter put up All-Star stats, but assuming he’s starting with other quality talent, his success is somewhat dimmed. A bench player it is.
2. The player’s team has to win the game. Because All-Stars, or at least All-Star efforts, always are victorious, right? (No, not right, but just another factor of elimination for this post.)

Basketball-Reference.com returned 662 instances of a player tallying at least 18 and 10 off the bench, in a win, since 1985-86, the extent of BBR’s dataset (this includes Johnson’s 18 and 13, by the way). However, the results needed to be narrowed down further: Read more »

Twenty-two games, one-third of the season, is over for the Washington Wizards. To say the least, it’s been tough on this rebuilding team. And to stress that “team” part, let’s see which combination of players has been working the best together, and which combinations haven’t.

According to BasketballValue.com, 177 different five-man units have seen action for the Washington Wizards this season. 177 sounds like a lot, but only 54 of those units have seen more than five minutes of court time together, so this post/results will focus on those, i.e., no need to include units such as John Wall, Jordan Crawford, Roger Mason, Rashard Lewis and Jan Vesely, who have seen a total of 0.03 minutes on the court together.

Five units have seen 31.75-percent of the total action. Those five units are:

1. Wall – Young – Lewis – Blatche – McGee (10.44% of court time, 110.25 minutes)
2. Wall – Young – Singleton – Booker – McGee (7.1%, 74.97)
3. Wall – Young – Singleton – Blatche – McGee (5.81%, 61.37)
4. Wall – Young – Lewis – Vesely – McGee (4.46%, 47.1)
5. Wall – Crawford – Lewis – Blatche – McGee (3.93%, 41.55)

Of those 54 “five minutes or more” lineups, these are the top five in Offensive Rating (an estimation of points scored per 100 possesions):

1. Mack – Crawford – Mason – Lewis – Seraphin (158.82 Off Rtg; 9.58 minutes)
2. Mack – Young – Singleton – Booker – Seraphin (140; 5.27)
3. Wall – Crawford – Young – Vesely – Blatche (137.5; 8.28)
4. Mack – Young – Singleton – Booker – Turiaf (136.36; 6.07)
5. Wall – Young – Booker – Lewis – Seraphin (136.36; 5.62)

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The Wizards held an 83-82 lead over Boston midway through the 4th quarter, but didn’t have enough answers to close out the game. The C’s cruised to their second road victory of the year, their second in Washington D.C., despite being without Rajon Rondo (who missed the game with a wrist injury) and Ray Allen (who left in the second quarter with a jammed ankle). That’s because Paul Pierce commanded much of the attention as the key piece in the Celtics’ offense, scoring 14 of his season-high 34 points in the final period.

The Wizards didn’t have an offensive crutch in the clutch, and it cost them. But Flip Saunders, in his post game presser, argued that a tough defense is just as important as a single reliable scoring threat in the closing minutes of a basketball game:

“You have to close out with your defense, that’s how you close out games, Close out with your defense and try to get some pushes up the floor and get some open floor stuff if you can. What you have to do is stay aggressive and flatten out the defense. The ball has to get below the free throw line extended. You can’t play late in games without a thrust to the basket, the ball getting down low. When the call is just a play above the top of the key, it puts too much pressure on you.”

Saunders also added that the Wizards need to get rid of the ball, make quicker decisions and let others make the play — three things the coach has stressed all season long. But you can’t rely on your defense to create offense in every game, in every clutch situation, especially against a team like Boston.

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[Kramer Middle School, Anacostia, DC - photo: K. Weidie]

The Wizards have been bad, and for the most part, that’s okay, even somewhat expected. Even those who contribute so-called “wicked pixels” understand that the rebuild will take time. After all, some of us, such as this person typing, have been ardent followers of the franchise since years before current team owner Ted Leonsis even started his now since long ended career at AOL (1993), or even before the current franchise poster boy, John Wall, was born (September 6, 1990). So when the valid message of patience is preached, it shouldn’t so much be seen as a defensively pious sermon by Leonsis, but rather a navigation through rough waters by the current moderator of a public trust — a team which is the property of the community, not of the current proprietors who aim to make money and promote positive influences though said team.

Proprietors of wicked pixels, depending on the source, can be the equivalent of a guy manning the Crow’s Nest of the ship sending a message to those in the galley about how rough the waters are. Not exactly helpful… they know it’s rough in the galley, they can feel the waves. Still, the perspective of outside insight is always a necessity. Thus, there exceptions to being bad in a rebuild. The main one being actually looking bad in being bad. Sure, against the Bulls the Wizards scored a franchise-low 64 points. Sure, they fell apart at the very end as the team has been wont to do. But the key is that they didn’t look unexpectedly bad. New starters Trevor Booker and Chris Singleton displayed infectious toughness. The team fought against a very solid Bulls team, even without M.V.P. Derrick Rose. Yes, bad decision-making and lack of focus hurt in the game-determining stretch, but the Wizards didn’t lose, for the most part, because they played like they didn’t care. They lost because they lacked talent. Lack of capability leading to failure in a rebuild is OK, lack of wherewithal is not.

Beyond development, beyond patience, beyond hope, the Wizards franchise can ill-afford to not adjust standards according to the current job auditions, or rather, continued poor performance when it comes to the simple desire of player to earn his pay. Navigating rebuild voyages also comes with sensitive lines amongst influences of culture. It’s a long trip across rough seas, and no matter how great someone might be at being a deckhand, if they have a negative influence on the rest of the crew, throw him off the ship. Else an unwilling and unknowing mutiny could form to wash the nautical charts away in an unexpected wave of trouble, leaving the vessel in a continued, directionless state.

All of this nonsense aside, let’s get into another aspect of being bad: measurables. Below is a chart with data courtesy of mySynergySports.com. “PPP” stands for Points Per Possession, a possession being defined by Synergy as a play that ends in a field-goal attempt, a turnover, or free-throws. The chart reflects the various types of plays tracked by Synergy on both offense and defense. The comparison is between the Wizards of 2010-11 and the Wizards through this current season’s first 10 games. Percent (%) Time reflects how often the Wizards run said play type on offense/how often they see them on defense. Read more »

In terms of winning percentage and shooting, two kind of big things in basketball, this lockout-shortened season could be rock-bottom for the rebuild of the Washington Wizards. And in terms of record books and scoring, it is. They scored 64 points tonight against Chicago, a franchise all-time low, to 78 points for the Bulls. The previous Washington franchise low was 65 points scored in an away game against the New Jersey Nets on December 13, 2002.

The Wizards shot 31-percent from the field on Wednesday in Chicago, at least they shot 36.6-percent that night in New Jersey — and Michael Jordan and Larry Hughes were chucking up shots (14-34 FGs, 31 points combined) instead of Jordan Crawford and Nick Young (6-23 FGs, 19 points combined).

Speaking of Young and Crawford, their shooting and passing stats this year:

>Crawford is shooting 33.3% from the field
while averaging 17.9 FGAs per 36 minutes as well as 3.6 assists/36.

>Young is shooting 37.7% from the field
while averaging 16.8 FGAs per 36 minutes as well as 1.7 assists/36.

Read more »

[Washington, DC Ward 6 Anacostia Rec Center - photo: K. Weidie]

A free-throw, the most efficient shot in basketball. But the clear irony is that the easiest way to get buckets, son (shout out to Oleksiy Pecherov, who is tearing it up in the Ukrainian Superleague), is often the most ignored difference-maker in games, unless they come at the very end. Then everyone knows the implications, and everyone is watching. It can get pretty lonely at the free-throw line in one’s thoughts.

In a sport where so many flowing events occur at once, instances where observers can focus on one man with the ball are relatively nonexistent. A solo fast-break is one (imagine Dwyane Wade in the passing lane), but even he must watch his back for a futilely hustling defender. Free-throws are another instance. On the court, nothing else is happening, aside the mental and physical jostling along the lane’s hash marks. White noise ready to rebound. All basketball-curious eyes are on a single, methodical routine. The line can be even more of an island when it’s a technical free-throw.

In 2010-11, 11 out of 30 NBA teams attempted 2000 or more free-throws, including the likes of Chicago, Oklahoma City, Miami and Orlando. The cumulative winning percentage of those eleven teams was 0.542. Ten out of 30 teams attempted 1900 or less free-throws, including the likes of Golden State, Detroit and New Jersey. The cumulative winning percentage of those ten teams was 0.508. There are, of course, exceptions. The 19-win Cleveland Cavaliers attempted the eighth most free-throws in the NBA with 2,075. The 57-win, World Champion Dallas Mavericks finished 27th in attempts with 1850. The Washington Wizards finished one attempt above the league average with 1,999, tied with the Charlotte Bobcats for 12th most in the NBA.

Getting to the line in abundance is one thing, making them is another. Washington finished tied with that Cleveland team with a 0.745 free-throw percentage, good enough for 24th league-wide. Free-throws are part of the “Four Factors” of winning basketball (offensively and defensively), popularized by statistician Dean Oliver. Oliver estimates free-throws as 15-percent of success, compared to shooting (40%), turnovers (25%), and rebounding (20%). Free-throw success in this sense is measured by the ratio of free-throws made to field-goals attempted. In 2010-11, Washington finished with an offensive FT/FGA ratio of 0.216, ranked 23rd in the NBA.

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[Emery Rec Center - NW Washington DC - photo: K. Weidie]

I’ve previously used historical statistical analysis in an attempt to determine who were some of the best, and worst, shooters in Wizards/Bullets franchise history.

One post explained that Slick Leonard might have had to worst shooting season in franchise record books. As a member of the ‘61-62 Chicago Packers, Leonard threw up 1,128 shots, second most on the team after Walt Bellamy, but only made 37.5-percent of them. In a nine team league that season 30 players attempted 1,000 or more field-goals, and Slick was the worst of them all.

Others, such as Kevin Loughery and Mitch Richmond, have cemented themselves as some of the worst shooters beyond the window of just one season. Loughery, over 591 career games played with the team in Baltimore, made only 41.5-percent of his 9,209 FG attempts. Richmond, who adeptly bastardized any memories of trading Chris Webber into scorn from fandom toward his aching knees, made just 41.7-percent of the 2,356 shots he took as a Wizard. To note, Loughery and Richmond were two of 26 players in franchise history to play in 160 games or more with the team and average over 15 field-goals attempted per 36 minutes.

Another post noted that Gilbert Arenas is the best long-range bomber in team history, and that some of the franchise’s better shooters — over various time periods, from everywhere on the court… twos, threes and ones — have been Brent Price, Mike Miller, Scott Skiles, Chris Whitney, Tracy Murray, Antawn Jamison and Caron Butler.

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Sabermetrics. They have been a continous hot topic of conversation in modern sports circles, recently sparked (and fueled) by Jonah Lehrer’s Grantland column, The Math Problem. Lehrer argued that while sabermetrics — the computerized measurement of statistics, in this case basketball data — can be extremely useful at times, the allure of definitive measures of production leads us to ignore the oft-underrated intangibles. Worse, the popular obsession with quantifiable sports values has resulted in shortsighted personnel decisions. The horror!

But this post isn’t about the great paradox of sports statistics nor whether dismissing math in sports is the right call. It’s about how Washington Wizards 2011 draft pick Jan Vesely played on paper — was he a slam dunk in Europe or something less spectacular?

The Wizards brass had their hearts and minds set on adding the 6’11” combo-forward to the roster for over two years, so I wanted to take a look at what attracted the team’s attention (assuming, of course, that the front office dabbles in advanced hoops data).

Our friendly neighborhood basketball statistician, ESPN.com’s John Hollinger, has determined that there is a predictable relationship between how a player performs in the Euroleague and how he will compete as a rookie in the Association. When transitioning to the NBA, a Euroleague player’s pace-adjusted per-minute stats will be affected as follows:

• Scoring rate decreases 25-percent
• Rebound rate increases by 18-percent
• Assist rate increases by 31-percent
• Shooting percentage drops by 12-percent
• Overall, player efficiency rating drops by 30-percent

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[Blatche celebrates a close win over the Pistons.]

Andray Blatche. Yes, that Andray Blatche … Party All Dray. He’s been a little bit different lately, hasn’t he? Sure has. Averaging 25.6 points and 13.7 rebounds per 36 minutes in the last four games (up from his 17.4 and 8.7 respective averages per 36 for the season), since his return from injury is certainly a strong indication that things could be different for Blatche.

Straight and to the point, he’s been attacking the rim. Living in the paint. Doing the dirty work down low. All the good stuff the team has always needed Andray Blatche to do, but has never quite been satisfied.

Against the Detroit Pistons on Tuesday night, the Wizards’ third win in a row (for the first time since April 2008), Blatche forced in 26 points on 8-18 shooting. Four of his misses came from inside five-feet from the rim (which is a good thing), and he made 7-8 of his field-goal attempts within two-feet.

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