[a basketball hoop somewhere in Washington, D.C. - K. Weidie]

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Excuse the comparison to the men’s game and think of the following more as context to what the Washington Mystics have accomplished this season. Through their run, a prevailing storyline has been about someone who hasn’t played at all, all-star Alana Beard. No one expected Washington to do anything after Beard had season-ending surgery on an injured left ankle tendon in April. Instead, the Mystics finished as the first overall seed in the East.

Unfortunately for the growing Mystics fan base, their team lost its opening playoff game against the Atlanta Dream in D.C. on Wednesday night. They’ve long moved past the ‘what if we had Alana’ stage, but for context, perspective, and for the hell of it, let’s find the NBA equivalent of Beard’s statistical production for a better idea of her impact, or lack thereof.

I chose three advanced stat categories to put in the Basketball-Reference.com historical NBA database (and please excuse the refresher course via the Basketball-Reference glossary): Read more »

The return of Josh Howard is unexpected, surprising and baffling. It’s also smart. And it’s the topping on a dessert of questions … I’ll get to that in a bit. First, let’s go through some reasons why it’s an agreeable move, without protest.

First, Howard comes relatively cheap — $4 million for a year with incentives, as reported by the Washington Post’s Michael Lee. He’s a player with the potential to show above average skill in a wide range of categories. In 2006-07 he had a PER of 20.0 and the tenth lowest turnover percentage in the NBA.

Second, he needs to get his knee healthy. The team doesn’t expect him to be ready by the start of the season. Howard’s camp says he’ll be full speed in October and that he is “ahead of schedule” — of course, Howard has been saying that he’s ahead of schedule since before last season was over (Good to know he’s still on track). Nevertheless, the knee, in a sense, was a blessing … selfishly for the Wizards.

Sure, it was essentially inevitable that the team would decline to pick up Howard’s $11.8 million option for 2010-11. But was it inevitable that he would re-sign with the same team for $7.8 million less (minus incentives)? Maybe, maybe not. In speaking with him before the end of last season, it was clear Howard understood that his option would not be picked up and that he’d be willing to come back to the Wizards. Still, that’s a lot of change to swallow and to re-sign for just a single season with the team that just forced you to chew.

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[Editor's note: Below is third piece Arish Narayen has written for TAI. He first broke down the Wizards' small forward situation in early July, and then wrote about the Wizards' third summer league game against the Mavericks. -Kyle]

If you haven’t had a chance to read this study linked on TrueHoop Monday, check it out. In the piece, Neil Paine of Basketball-Reference.com analyzes how NBA players performed against above and below average defenses in 2009-10.

Paine begins by ranking each team’s defense by using a defensive version of the Simple Rating System, taking into account margin of victory, strength of schedule, and home-court effects. Taken from the article, here are the relevant bits about the Wizards:

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[Editor's note: Below is the debut guest post of Arish Narayen. Arish is 23-years old and is currently in his second year at the University of Maryland School of Law. Arish has always been a basketball fan, especially of the Terps, but became enamored with the Wizards around the time Gilbert Arenas was hitting game winning shots and stealing game five from the Bulls in Chicago in the 2005 NBA Playoffs. The Wizards have gone nowhere but downhill from since, but somehow Arish has stuck around ... and now he wants to write about the Wiz for Truth About It.net. Go figure.

Check out Arish's debut below as he analyzes the Wizards' attempts to fill their potentially open small forward/wing position. Mike Prada has a quick breakdown of several wing candidates on Bullets Forever, but check out what Arish wrote too -- he worked on this post over the course of several days and goes in-depth statistically on a handful of players the Wizards are rumored to be interested in ... although Arish does use the much too vaunted 'Win Shares' stat that I recently went on a Twitter-rant against. I won't hold that against him. After all, the stat isn't good for nothing, it's just not all what it's cracked up to be. -Kyle]

The Wizards’ Small Forward Situation

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Sebastian Pruiti, founder and editor of NBAPlaybook.com and NetsAreScorching.com, has had the opportunity to watch Yi Jianlian for the past two seasons and in a conversation with Truth About It, said:

Yi is an incredibly inconsistent player.  There are days where he looks like he finally solved the puzzle and will turn into a pretty solid offensive player and then the next game he will go 2-15 from the field.  Something he has always been ripped for was [his] lack of aggression, and last year he tried really hard to dispel those thoughts…maybe too hard.  Most times he made the catch he wouldn’t even look for the shot and he’d put the ball on the floor, but teams started to pick up on it.  If he can find a happy medium he might do pretty well offensively.

On the defensive end though, he is absolutely lost.  That is part of the reason I think the Nets traded him besides the cap relief.  I don’t think he would have got much minutes this upcoming year, just because Avery wouldn’t allow his terrible defense to hurt the Nets.

That isn’t exactly a ringing endorsement of the 22 (or is it 24?) year old stretch four.  To sort out any misconceptions and better determine Yi’s worth, it’s time for another installment of CHECK MY STATS, unofficially sponsored by Synergy Sports Technology. Read more »

A lot of people were disappointed when the Wizards traded for Kirk Hinrich.  Mike Prada of SB Nation alone gave the move a “Nay”, a “Feh”, and a “D-”.

There is no question that “Kurt” is overpaid, but salary cap space only gets you so far.  Even if the Wizards had upwards of $25 million to spend, it wouldn’t get them any closer to signing a “max” contract player.  Let’s be serious.  None of the league’s top players ever really considered coming to D.C., even with John Wall.  The Wizards will be a work in progress for a couple of years, and when we are honestly competitive, Hinrich will no longer be under contract.

So is he worth it for this Wizards team?  I turned to Synergy Sports Technology to find out.

OFFENSE

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The Pick and Roll is a staple of many NBA offenses. The Wizards, in particular, starved when it came to defending P&Rs in 2009-10.

Once again turning to Synergy Sports Technology, we learn that as a team, the Wizards defended the P&R ball handler 1,128 times in plays that ended with a FGA, TO or FTA. This accounted for 12.6% of the team’s defensive plays. Defending these plays, the Wizards gave up 0.89 points-per-possession (PPP), which is tied for the most allowed in the NBA.

Against the Wizards, the P&R ball handler shot 43.2% on field goals and scored 42.9% of the time, which is the second highest scoring rate allowed in the league.

Conversely, the Wizards had to defend the P&R roll man 406 times and fared slightly better in the PPP department.

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What would be the readout from scanning JaVale McGee’s new barcode tattoo? I know the numbers on it represent his January 19, 1988 birthday. But if you ran him down a very long grocery store conveyor belt, what would be the output of the parallel lines of data on his back?

To find out, I transferred the barcode onto paper and printed it out. I fashioned and folded the paper, put a penny in it, and then threw the airplane out the window. A guy on a bike ran over it. I then went back to the computer and dialed up Synergy Sports Technology for some stats.

On Offense, JaVale’s catch phrase is “Drive, baby, drive” (somewhat akin to Sarah Palin’s “Drill, baby, drill.”) and occasionally, “Shoot it like a hot potato.” So, the barcode readout might be all of JaVale’s 2009-10 offensive possessions that ended in a shot attempt, a turnover or a free-throw attempt.

One of his strongest suits is offensive rebounding. Seems natural. McGee has shown the ability to get after the boards when he applies himself. Also, his endurance and consistency seemed to improve once he and the team found out he had asthma late in the season and were able to properly treat it.

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Okay, so Ted Leonsis already has one quality that’s in high demand from sports fans … transparency. How many other professional sports team owners have a personal blog where they actually share candid opinion and not boring, patronizing fluff?

Now, more and more, Leonsis is expressing interest in other areas of concern for educated sports fans, especially Wizards fans … advanced statistics.

If you’ll recall, Leonsis proclaimed his belief in basketball analytics on The Mike Wise Show on 106.7 FM in early April. More recently, he reiterated his belief in statistical analysis in an interview with CSN Washington’s Russ Thaler.

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In case you haven’t heard, Andray Blatche has been doing pretty damn well lately. This sparked a recent Twitter debate amongst a couple of the better NBA writers on the ‘net.

Mike Prada of Bullets Forever has suddenly elevated Blatche to one of the best power forwards in the league (in terms of who you’d want on your team over the next five seasons). The only players Prada would take over Blatche is Josh Smith, Kevin Love, Chris Bosh, Blake Griffin and Pau Gasol. This is, of course, factoring in value of play and value of contract.

Tom Ziller, of several places all over the Interweb, but most notably SacTown Royalty and NBA FanHouse, seems to disagree, wondering specifically about Al Jefferson, Carl Landry, J.J. Hickson, Michael Beasley and LaMarcus Aldridge, and saying that Prada is “in lonely company taking Blatche over any of them, let alone ALL of them.” The debate raged on.

The disclaimer is that my friend Mr. Prada has always been a bit over-amorous for Andray Blatche. I, on the other hand, have always been a bit too skeptical, perhaps unfairly so. Although, in my opinion, and since I’m writing this on my site, Blatche has always ‘made his own bed’, if you will, (and I’m not taking about when he got caught soliciting an undercover cop he thought was a prostitute), with his inconsistent play that has often derived from lack of conditioning, focus and a commitment to the game.

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One cool thing about Google Analytics is the ability to get stats on the network locations of visitors. Most come from big network providers (“locations”) such as Comcast, Verizon, Cox, BellSouth, RCN, etc.. Other stats indicate visitors from specific government entities or large companies.

I really appreciate all readers from the networks above and every place in between, but today, as we continue to bring in 2010, it’s all about the colleges. Why? Because Andray Blatche says so. C’mon Son.

Below are the top 50 colleges and universities that visited Truth About It.net in 2009 (and a map below the jump). Thanks to all for stopping by, but mainly, stay classy [insert school mascot or dorm name here].

1. university of maryland
2. occidental college
3. george mason university
4. georgetown university
5. george washington university
6. virginia tech
7. university of california, los angeles
8. howard university
9. harvard university
10. northwestern university
11. johns hopkins
12. university of missouri-columbia
13. college of william and mary
14. haverford college
15. university of southern california
16. university of virginia
17. temple university
18. american university
19. stanford university
20. virginia commonwealth university
21. new york university
22. columbia university
23. university of pennsylvania
24. university of california san diego
25. duke university
26. university of massachusetts
27. indiana university
28. university of washington
29. university of maryland at baltimore
30. university of texas at austin
31. james madison university
32. university of miami
33. boston college
34. pennsylvania state university
35. ohio state university
36. boston university
37. princeton university
38. university of pittsburgh
39. university of toronto
40. washington university (in saint louis)
41. massachusetts institute of technology
42. university of california – berkeley
43. rutgers university
44. university of california irvine
45. university of wisconsin madison
46. cornell university
47. oxford university
48. university of baltimore
49. mcdaniel college
50. carnegie mellon university

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Time for a win folks. I’ll be on ESPN’s Daily Dime Live around game time to discuss. Got a good feeling about this one.

The Wizards don’t want to be number one with seven

If the Wiz lose by four points or less again, they’ll surpass the 76-77 Suns with the most consecutive losses within that margin. The spread is Golden State by 2.5.

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Ok, the look on Gilbert Arenas’ face is etched in my mind too … but I’m also getting used to it.

Arenas had one of his better offensive games of the season against Sacramento on Wednesday night. It was just his fifth game getting to double figures in field-goals made (10), tied for his second most free-throws attempted (12) and third most made (10), only the fourth time he took more than three three-pointers and shot fifty-percent or better (3-6), and his sixth time shooting 45% or better when taking 10 or more shots (.455).

All signs of progress for Gilbert.

Of course, the team is pretty much the same. Last night was the fourteenth time the Wizards have shot below 45% this season (43.2%). They are 1-13 when that happens. It was also the thirteenth time the Wizards have tallied less than 20 assists (13). They are 1-12 when that happens.

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There was a mini-spike in Randy Foye news last week. On Monday, after watching a video about Foye on NBA.com, I wondered if he could be ‘the’ difference maker.

On Wednesday, the WaPost’s Michael Lee put together a nice piece on Foye off his notes from a previous meeting. Here, we learned of a potential style conflict between Foye and former T-Wolves head coach, current Wizards assistant, Randy Wittman. Lee also related something Kevin McHale once told Foye before a matchup against Dwyane Wade, “Anything he can do, you can do.” Foye battled and finished with 29 points to Wade’s 31. The game came down to a last second foul call that Foye did not get … Wade probably would have.

Predating Wade-Foye comparisons, looking back into John Hollinger’s vault, we find Foye associated with Vinny Del Negro. Before he was drafted in ’06, ESPN compared Foye to Ben Gordon, while NBADraft.net to Chauncey Billups. But it was DraftExpress FTL … in their ‘best’ case, Randy Foye is Mike James; worst case, Juan Dixon. Yuck.

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[Ed. Note: this is the first post by newcomer docfunk, who was introduced in the previous post]