What do you write after a team shoots 65.8% (50-76 field-goals) on their way to a 114-83 win over the Wizards?

Chalk it up to the Boston Celtics being a great-passing veteran team at home and the Wizards being a non-passing, relatively inexperienced team on the road and move on, I suppose.

Oh, lest I forget a stat fact that you’ll surely be made aware of by others: the Boston Celtics had 32 assists, the Washington Wizards had 31 made field-goals.

But let’s go back to this field-goal percentage thing. It’s kind of like winning in overtime when you didn’t deserve it … a win is a win.

Sure, the Celtics were pretty hot and likely would have been scorching the nets against most teams on this very night on their own parquet floor. But 65% is 65% … this game won’t be exempt from the Wizards’ defensive statistical record no matter how in the zone the Celtics were.

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[Yi Jianlian procures an easy defensive rebound against the Charlotte Bobcats - K. Weidie]

It’s simplistic to look at average team rebounds per game and say the Washington Wizards are the worst in the NBA, but it wouldn’t represent the full story.

The Wizards average a league-low 38 rebounds per game. On the defensive boards they average 27.25, which ranks 28 out of 30; and on the offensive boards they average 10.75, which is tied with the San Antonio Spurs to rank 20 out of 30 NBA teams.

But as you know, rebounds are not soley a factor of the time it takes to play a game. They are also a factor of pace (how fast a team plays and thus how many possessions they are producing, the more possessions, the more available boards), and field-goal percentage (the more missed shots, the more rebounds).

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Not too long ago we took a look at some of the worst shooters in Bullets/Wizards franchise history. Now, especially since shooting is such a concern, we’ll take a look at some the best shooters in team history, specifically from the three-point distance.

[Basketball Court - Georgia Avenue/Howard University - photo: K. Weidie]

Last season was the 31th anniversary of the three-point shot in the NBA. Well, sorta. The three-point line was implemented on a trial basis for the 1979-80 season and set into permanent rule for the 1980-81 season. So, perhaps technically this season is the 31th anniversary of the three-point shot in the NBA. Nonetheless, stats on the shot have been kept for the previous 31 seasons and are available thanks to Basketball-Reference.com.

Kevin Grevey of the Washington Bullets hit the first three-point bucket in franchise history, on opening night against the Philadelphia 76ers at home on October 12, 1979. Evidently there is some dispute as to whether Grevey hit the first three in NBA history; Chris Ford of the Boston Celtics is usually credited with accomplishing this feat, which occurred on the same night.

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{flickr/draggin}

The Intro.

- by Arish Narayen

Over the past several years, NBA organizations have increasingly integrated advanced statistics into their decision-making. But exactly how teams employ these statistics in personnel decisions — that is privileged information. The NBA’s trend towards quantitative analysis is seemingly personified by Houston Rockets GM Daryl Morey. It is easy to see why Morey is a darling to stat nerds everywhere: he never played in the NBA, and he got his bachelor’s degree (in Computer Science) at Northwestern, and an MBA from MIT. Morey also serves as chair of the MIT Sloan Sports Analytic Conference. As NBA teams, and media (bloggers) seek new ways to evaluate players, attendance at the Sloan Conference has grown.

In Michael Lewis’ NY Times profile on Shane Battier in February 2009, Morey and Lewis had the following exchange: Read more »

[Shaw Rec. Center - Washington, D.C. - K. Weidie]

In mid-September, ESPN.com contributor Tom Haberstroh made an attempt to determine the five worst players in the franchise history of each NBA team [ESPN Insider]. The requirements, along with the implementation of John Hollinger’s PER, were:

“… a player needed to have played at least 10 minutes per contest over the course of at least 100 career games with the franchise. Furthermore, we’ve added the “Bruce Bowen Corollary” to exempt players who started for championship teams.”

And the list of distinguished gentlemen for the Bullets/Wizards franchise:

And while a standard qualification is necessary to measure across all teams, it’s still subjective. Any of us could find other players just as bad, or worse, using the database of Basketball-Reference.com. Today, I’ll focus on bad shooting players in franchise history.

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Click here for part one of the TAI Basketball-Reference.com statistical research assignment, featuring a search for what opposing player has scored the most off the bench against the Wizards/Bullets since ’86-87 and the observations of Arish Narayen and Adam McGinnis. Part two, with my second search example and the findings of John Townsend and Rashad Mobley, is below.

[The Number Cruncher - Dupont Circle, Washington, D.C. - K. Weidie]

For my second quick example using BBR’s database, I selected the “Team Season Finder” and ran a simple search to see which Bullets/Wizards team averaged the most assists per game in the shot clock era (starting in 1954-55). (Click here for the full results.)

The ’89-90 Bullets averaged 27 assists per game. Darrell Walker led the team with 8.0 per game, John “Hot Plate” Williams was second with 4.7 per, and Bernard King was third with 4.6 assists per game. That year, the Bullets finished fourth in the NBA in total assists, and they were the only team in the top 11 in total assists that did not make the playoffs. The ’89-90 Bullets finished 31-51.

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[A John Wall t-shirt seen at the 2010 Columbia Heights Day Festival.]

There’s a reason the Sports-Reference.com family of sites was named one of Time Magazine’s 50 Best Websites for 2010. They have just about everything you’d want, sports fact and statistically speaking, and their search capabilities are always growing … well, if they only had NBA game logs that pre-dated the 1986-87 season.

Nevertheless, I recently gave an assignment to the staff of Truth About It.net, (Rashad Mobley, John Townsend, Arish Narayen and Adam McGinnis). I asked them to go to the Basketball-Reference.com database search page, come up with a creative query, and write something quick about it. I also came up with some quick example searches myself.

For instance, I went to the “Player Game Finder” and ran a simple search selecting ‘Wizards/Bullets’ as the opponent, ‘did not start’ as the role, and sorted by points. (Click here for the full results.)

Did you know … (from the ’86-87 season to current, the extent of BBR’s game log database), the 37 points Al Harrington scored for the New York Knicks against the Wizards on February 26 of this year was the most points scored on Washington by a player off the opposing team’s bench?

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[a basketball hoop somewhere in Washington, D.C. - K. Weidie]

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Excuse the comparison to the men’s game and think of the following more as context to what the Washington Mystics have accomplished this season. Through their run, a prevailing storyline has been about someone who hasn’t played at all, all-star Alana Beard. No one expected Washington to do anything after Beard had season-ending surgery on an injured left ankle tendon in April. Instead, the Mystics finished as the first overall seed in the East.

Unfortunately for the growing Mystics fan base, their team lost its opening playoff game against the Atlanta Dream in D.C. on Wednesday night. They’ve long moved past the ‘what if we had Alana’ stage, but for context, perspective, and for the hell of it, let’s find the NBA equivalent of Beard’s statistical production for a better idea of her impact, or lack thereof.

I chose three advanced stat categories to put in the Basketball-Reference.com historical NBA database (and please excuse the refresher course via the Basketball-Reference glossary):

• PER (Player Efficiency Rating): “The PER sums up all a player’s positive accomplishments, subtracts the negative accomplishments, and returns a per-minute rating of a player’s performance.” *Note: developed by ESPN’s John Hollinger.
• Usg% (Usage Percentage): “Usage percentage is an estimate of the percentage of team plays used by a player while he was on the floor.”
• WS/48 (Win Shares Per 48 Minutes): “An estimate of the number of wins contributed by the player per 48 minutes (league average is approximately 0.100).”

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The return of Josh Howard is unexpected, surprising and baffling. It’s also smart. And it’s the topping on a dessert of questions … I’ll get to that in a bit. First, let’s go through some reasons why it’s an agreeable move, without protest.

First, Howard comes relatively cheap — $4 million for a year with incentives, as reported by the Washington Post’s Michael Lee. He’s a player with the potential to show above average skill in a wide range of categories. In 2006-07 he had a PER of 20.0 and the tenth lowest turnover percentage in the NBA.

Second, he needs to get his knee healthy. The team doesn’t expect him to be ready by the start of the season. Howard’s camp says he’ll be full speed in October and that he is “ahead of schedule” — of course, Howard has been saying that he’s ahead of schedule since before last season was over (Good to know he’s still on track). Nevertheless, the knee, in a sense, was a blessing … selfishly for the Wizards.

Sure, it was essentially inevitable that the team would decline to pick up Howard’s $11.8 million option for 2010-11. But was it inevitable that he would re-sign with the same team for $7.8 million less (minus incentives)? Maybe, maybe not. In speaking with him before the end of last season, it was clear Howard understood that his option would not be picked up and that he’d be willing to come back to the Wizards. Still, that’s a lot of change to swallow and to re-sign for just a single season with the team that just forced you to chew.

Perhaps Howard felt the Wizards wanted him, as he said after the trade that brought him to D.C., and thus decided the best course of action is to stay put for a bit — to follow through with loyalty to the team that acquired him and to stick it to the team that traded him away. OR, maybe offers from the Bulls, Celtics and Cavaliers, franchises reportedly interested in Howard, just weren’t up to monetary snuff heading into a potential lockout.

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[Editor's note: Below is third piece Arish Narayen has written for TAI. He first broke down the Wizards' small forward situation in early July, and then wrote about the Wizards' third summer league game against the Mavericks. -Kyle]

If you haven’t had a chance to read this study linked on TrueHoop Monday, check it out. In the piece, Neil Paine of Basketball-Reference.com analyzes how NBA players performed against above and below average defenses in 2009-10.

Paine begins by ranking each team’s defense by using a defensive version of the Simple Rating System, taking into account margin of victory, strength of schedule, and home-court effects. Taken from the article, here are the relevant bits about the Wizards:

First, the good news. Last season, the Washington Wizards’ defense ranked 20th in the NBA using Paine’s DSRS metric. Take that, New Orleans and Phoenix. Read more »

[Editor's note: Below is the debut guest post of Arish Narayen. Arish is 23-years old and is currently in his second year at the University of Maryland School of Law. Arish has always been a basketball fan, especially of the Terps, but became enamored with the Wizards around the time Gilbert Arenas was hitting game winning shots and stealing game five from the Bulls in Chicago in the 2005 NBA Playoffs. The Wizards have gone nowhere but downhill from since, but somehow Arish has stuck around ... and now he wants to write about the Wiz for Truth About It.net. Go figure.

Check out Arish's debut below as he analyzes the Wizards' attempts to fill their potentially open small forward/wing position. Mike Prada has a quick breakdown of several wing candidates on Bullets Forever, but check out what Arish wrote too -- he worked on this post over the course of several days and goes in-depth statistically on a handful of players the Wizards are rumored to be interested in ... although Arish does use the much too vaunted 'Win Shares' stat that I recently went on a Twitter-rant against. I won't hold that against him. After all, the stat isn't good for nothing, it's just not all what it's cracked up to be. -Kyle]

The Wizards’ Small Forward Situation

by Arish Narayen

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Sebastian Pruiti, founder and editor of NBAPlaybook.com and NetsAreScorching.com, has had the opportunity to watch Yi Jianlian for the past two seasons and in a conversation with Truth About It, said:

Yi is an incredibly inconsistent player.  There are days where he looks like he finally solved the puzzle and will turn into a pretty solid offensive player and then the next game he will go 2-15 from the field.  Something he has always been ripped for was [his] lack of aggression, and last year he tried really hard to dispel those thoughts…maybe too hard.  Most times he made the catch he wouldn’t even look for the shot and he’d put the ball on the floor, but teams started to pick up on it.  If he can find a happy medium he might do pretty well offensively.

On the defensive end though, he is absolutely lost.  That is part of the reason I think the Nets traded him besides the cap relief.  I don’t think he would have got much minutes this upcoming year, just because Avery wouldn’t allow his terrible defense to hurt the Nets.

That isn’t exactly a ringing endorsement of the 22 (or is it 24?) year old stretch four.  To sort out any misconceptions and better determine Yi’s worth, it’s time for another installment of CHECK MY STATS, unofficially sponsored by Synergy Sports Technology.

OFFENSE

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A lot of people were disappointed when the Wizards traded for Kirk Hinrich.  Mike Prada of SB Nation alone gave the move a “Nay”, a “Feh”, and a “D-”.

There is no question that “Kurt” is overpaid, but salary cap space only gets you so far.  Even if the Wizards had upwards of $25 million to spend, it wouldn’t get them any closer to signing a “max” contract player.  Let’s be serious.  None of the league’s top players ever really considered coming to D.C., even with John Wall.  The Wizards will be a work in progress for a couple of years, and when we are honestly competitive, Hinrich will no longer be under contract.

So is he worth it for this Wizards team?  I turned to Synergy Sports Technology to find out.

OFFENSE

Where is Hinrich most effective (at least 60 attempts)?

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The Pick and Roll is a staple of many NBA offenses. The Wizards, in particular, starved when it came to defending P&Rs in 2009-10.

Once again turning to Synergy Sports Technology, we learn that as a team, the Wizards defended the P&R ball handler 1,128 times in plays that ended with a FGA, TO or FTA. This accounted for 12.6% of the team’s defensive plays. Defending these plays, the Wizards gave up 0.89 points-per-possession (PPP), which is tied for the most allowed in the NBA.

Against the Wizards, the P&R ball handler shot 43.2% on field goals and scored 42.9% of the time, which is the second highest scoring rate allowed in the league.

Conversely, the Wizards had to defend the P&R roll man 406 times and fared slightly better in the PPP department.

As you can imagine, the roll-man in a P&R is usually getting better looks at the basket. The Wizards allowed the roll man to score 49% of the time while shooting 49.5%. However, the one (1) PPP given up to roll-men ranks 7th lowest in the NBA. Read more »

What would be the readout from scanning JaVale McGee’s new barcode tattoo? I know the numbers on it represent his January 19, 1988 birthday. But if you ran him down a very long grocery store conveyor belt, what would be the output of the parallel lines of data on his back?

To find out, I transferred the barcode onto paper and printed it out. I fashioned and folded the paper, put a penny in it, and then threw the airplane out the window. A guy on a bike ran over it. I then went back to the computer and dialed up Synergy Sports Technology for some stats.

On Offense, JaVale’s catch phrase is “Drive, baby, drive” (somewhat akin to Sarah Palin’s “Drill, baby, drill.”) and occasionally, “Shoot it like a hot potato.” So, the barcode readout might be all of JaVale’s 2009-10 offensive possessions that ended in a shot attempt, a turnover or a free-throw attempt.

One of his strongest suits is offensive rebounding. Seems natural. McGee has shown the ability to get after the boards when he applies himself. Also, his endurance and consistency seemed to improve once he and the team found out he had asthma late in the season and were able to properly treat it.

Points from offensive rebounds accounted for 72 of his 407 total offensive plays, a leading 17.7%. His points-per-possession on these chances (PPP) ranks 76th in the league at 1.15. Almost all points from offensive boards are the result of hustle.

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