[Editor's note: Below is third piece Arish Narayen has written for TAI. He first broke down the Wizards' small forward situation in early July, and then wrote about the Wizards' third summer league game against the Mavericks. -Kyle]

If you haven’t had a chance to read this study linked on TrueHoop Monday, check it out. In the piece, Neil Paine of Basketball-Reference.com analyzes how NBA players performed against above and below average defenses in 2009-10.

Paine begins by ranking each team’s defense by using a defensive version of the Simple Rating System, taking into account margin of victory, strength of schedule, and home-court effects. Taken from the article, here are the relevant bits about the Wizards:

First, the good news. Last season, the Washington Wizards’ defense ranked 20th in the NBA using Paine’s DSRS metric. Take that, New Orleans and Phoenix. Read more »

[Editor's note: Below is the debut guest post of Arish Narayen. Arish is 23-years old and is currently in his second year at the University of Maryland School of Law. Arish has always been a basketball fan, especially of the Terps, but became enamored with the Wizards around the time Gilbert Arenas was hitting game winning shots and stealing game five from the Bulls in Chicago in the 2005 NBA Playoffs. The Wizards have gone nowhere but downhill from since, but somehow Arish has stuck around ... and now he wants to write about the Wiz for Truth About It.net. Go figure.

Check out Arish's debut below as he analyzes the Wizards' attempts to fill their potentially open small forward/wing position. Mike Prada has a quick breakdown of several wing candidates on Bullets Forever, but check out what Arish wrote too -- he worked on this post over the course of several days and goes in-depth statistically on a handful of players the Wizards are rumored to be interested in ... although Arish does use the much too vaunted 'Win Shares' stat that I recently went on a Twitter-rant against. I won't hold that against him. After all, the stat isn't good for nothing, it's just not all what it's cracked up to be. -Kyle]

The Wizards’ Small Forward Situation

by Arish Narayen

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Sebastian Pruiti, founder and editor of NBAPlaybook.com and NetsAreScorching.com, has had the opportunity to watch Yi Jianlian for the past two seasons and in a conversation with Truth About It, said:

Yi is an incredibly inconsistent player.  There are days where he looks like he finally solved the puzzle and will turn into a pretty solid offensive player and then the next game he will go 2-15 from the field.  Something he has always been ripped for was [his] lack of aggression, and last year he tried really hard to dispel those thoughts…maybe too hard.  Most times he made the catch he wouldn’t even look for the shot and he’d put the ball on the floor, but teams started to pick up on it.  If he can find a happy medium he might do pretty well offensively.

On the defensive end though, he is absolutely lost.  That is part of the reason I think the Nets traded him besides the cap relief.  I don’t think he would have got much minutes this upcoming year, just because Avery wouldn’t allow his terrible defense to hurt the Nets.

That isn’t exactly a ringing endorsement of the 22 (or is it 24?) year old stretch four.  To sort out any misconceptions and better determine Yi’s worth, it’s time for another installment of CHECK MY STATS, unofficially sponsored by Synergy Sports Technology.

OFFENSE

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A lot of people were disappointed when the Wizards traded for Kirk Hinrich.  Mike Prada of SB Nation alone gave the move a “Nay”, a “Feh”, and a “D-”.

There is no question that “Kurt” is overpaid, but salary cap space only gets you so far.  Even if the Wizards had upwards of $25 million to spend, it wouldn’t get them any closer to signing a “max” contract player.  Let’s be serious.  None of the league’s top players ever really considered coming to D.C., even with John Wall.  The Wizards will be a work in progress for a couple of years, and when we are honestly competitive, Hinrich will no longer be under contract.

So is he worth it for this Wizards team?  I turned to Synergy Sports Technology to find out.

OFFENSE

Where is Hinrich most effective (at least 60 attempts)?

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The Pick and Roll is a staple of many NBA offenses. The Wizards, in particular, starved when it came to defending P&Rs in 2009-10.

Once again turning to Synergy Sports Technology, we learn that as a team, the Wizards defended the P&R ball handler 1,128 times in plays that ended with a FGA, TO or FTA. This accounted for 12.6% of the team’s defensive plays. Defending these plays, the Wizards gave up 0.89 points-per-possession (PPP), which is tied for the most allowed in the NBA.

Against the Wizards, the P&R ball handler shot 43.2% on field goals and scored 42.9% of the time, which is the second highest scoring rate allowed in the league.

Conversely, the Wizards had to defend the P&R roll man 406 times and fared slightly better in the PPP department.

As you can imagine, the roll-man in a P&R is usually getting better looks at the basket. The Wizards allowed the roll man to score 49% of the time while shooting 49.5%. However, the one (1) PPP given up to roll-men ranks 7th lowest in the NBA. Read more »

What would be the readout from scanning JaVale McGee’s new barcode tattoo? I know the numbers on it represent his January 19, 1988 birthday. But if you ran him down a very long grocery store conveyor belt, what would be the output of the parallel lines of data on his back?

To find out, I transferred the barcode onto paper and printed it out. I fashioned and folded the paper, put a penny in it, and then threw the airplane out the window. A guy on a bike ran over it. I then went back to the computer and dialed up Synergy Sports Technology for some stats.

On Offense, JaVale’s catch phrase is “Drive, baby, drive” (somewhat akin to Sarah Palin’s “Drill, baby, drill.”) and occasionally, “Shoot it like a hot potato.” So, the barcode readout might be all of JaVale’s 2009-10 offensive possessions that ended in a shot attempt, a turnover or a free-throw attempt.

One of his strongest suits is offensive rebounding. Seems natural. McGee has shown the ability to get after the boards when he applies himself. Also, his endurance and consistency seemed to improve once he and the team found out he had asthma late in the season and were able to properly treat it.

Points from offensive rebounds accounted for 72 of his 407 total offensive plays, a leading 17.7%. His points-per-possession on these chances (PPP) ranks 76th in the league at 1.15. Almost all points from offensive boards are the result of hustle.

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{flickr/Youssef Abdelaal}

Okay, so Ted Leonsis already has one quality that’s in high demand from sports fans … transparency. How many other professional sports team owners have a personal blog where they actually share candid opinion and not boring, patronizing fluff?

Now, more and more, Leonsis is expressing interest in other areas of concern for educated sports fans, especially Wizards fans … advanced statistics.

If you’ll recall, Leonsis proclaimed his belief in basketball analytics on The Mike Wise Show on 106.7 FM in early April. More recently, he reiterated his belief in statistical analysis in an interview with CSN Washington’s Russ Thaler.

Today, on his blog Ted’s Take, Leonsis recommends two books on sports statistics. One is Stumbling On Wins: Two Economists Expose the Pitfalls on the Road to Victory in Professional Sports by Dave Berri and Martin Schmidt  (a book for which I held a contest to win on this very site, winners to be announced soon). The second recommendation is Mathematics: How Gamblers, Managers, and Sports Enthusiasts Use Mathematics in Basketball, Basketball, and Football by Wayne L. Winston (a big plus/minus guy who’s served as Mark Cuban’s stat guru for the Mavericks).

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In case you haven’t heard, Andray Blatche has been doing pretty damn well lately. This sparked a recent Twitter debate amongst a couple of the better NBA writers on the ‘net.

Mike Prada of Bullets Forever has suddenly elevated Blatche to one of the best power forwards in the league (in terms of who you’d want on your team over the next five seasons). The only players Prada would take over Blatche is Josh Smith, Kevin Love, Chris Bosh, Blake Griffin and Pau Gasol. This is, of course, factoring in value of play and value of contract.

Tom Ziller, of several places all over the Interweb, but most notably SacTown Royalty and NBA FanHouse, seems to disagree, wondering specifically about Al Jefferson, Carl Landry, J.J. Hickson, Michael Beasley and LaMarcus Aldridge, and saying that Prada is “in lonely company taking Blatche over any of them, let alone ALL of them.” The debate raged on.

The disclaimer is that my friend Mr. Prada has always been a bit over-amorous for Andray Blatche. I, on the other hand, have always been a bit too skeptical, perhaps unfairly so. Although, in my opinion, and since I’m writing this on my site, Blatche has always ‘made his own bed’, if you will, (and I’m not taking about when he got caught soliciting an undercover cop he thought was a prostitute), with his inconsistent play that has often derived from lack of conditioning, focus and a commitment to the game.

But the guy is still young and finding his way. This season,  often times I’ve come around on Blatche. Other times not so much. Flip Saunders has openly expressed frustration that Blatche tends to float away from the rim, and of course, when he tries to do playground dribbles behind his back. Hence, because of Andray’s penchant for inconsistency, it’s way too early to judge his future on these past couple of games. And Mr. Prada would agree with me. However, the start is extremely promising for Wizards fans. As Prada notes, Blatche’s pace-adjusted numbers per 36 minutes over the last ten (10) games are as follows: 23.3 points, 9 rebounds, 2.1 turnovers, 26.3 PER, 59.6 true-shooting percentage, 55.5 effective field-goal percentage.

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One cool thing about Google Analytics is the ability to get stats on the network locations of visitors. Most come from big network providers (“locations”) such as Comcast, Verizon, Cox, BellSouth, RCN, etc.. Other stats indicate visitors from specific government entities or large companies.

I really appreciate all readers from the networks above and every place in between, but today, as we continue to bring in 2010, it’s all about the colleges. Why? Because Andray Blatche says so. C’mon Son.

Below are the top 50 colleges and universities that visited Truth About It.net in 2009 (and a map below the jump). Thanks to all for stopping by, but mainly, stay classy [insert school mascot or dorm name here].

1. university of maryland
2. occidental college
3. george mason university
4. georgetown university
5. george washington university
6. virginia tech
7. university of california, los angeles
8. howard university
9. harvard university
10. northwestern university
11. johns hopkins
12. university of missouri-columbia
13. college of william and mary
14. haverford college
15. university of southern california
16. university of virginia
17. temple university
18. american university
19. stanford university
20. virginia commonwealth university
21. new york university
22. columbia university
23. university of pennsylvania
24. university of california san diego
25. duke university
26. university of massachusetts
27. indiana university
28. university of washington
29. university of maryland at baltimore
30. university of texas at austin
31. james madison university
32. university of miami
33. boston college
34. pennsylvania state university
35. ohio state university
36. boston university
37. princeton university
38. university of pittsburgh
39. university of toronto
40. washington university (in saint louis)
41. massachusetts institute of technology
42. university of california – berkeley
43. rutgers university
44. university of california irvine
45. university of wisconsin madison
46. cornell university
47. oxford university
48. university of baltimore
49. mcdaniel college
50. carnegie mellon university

I’ve plotted the entire list, obviously excluding Oxford University, on the map below. You can also find a link to it here at Google Maps.

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Time for a win folks. I’ll be on ESPN’s Daily Dime Live around game time to discuss. Got a good feeling about this one.

The Wizards don’t want to be number one with seven

If the Wiz lose by four points or less again, they’ll surpass the 76-77 Suns with the most consecutive losses within that margin. The spread is Golden State by 2.5.

The Suns’ first loss in their streak came against the Cleveland Cavaliers on February 19th, 1977. Their seventh game on March 4th came, ironically enough, against the Warriors. The Suns didn’t lose to Golden State by four or less, they lost to them by five, 101-87. In fact, the Suns ended up losing 12 total before winning again.

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Ok, the look on Gilbert Arenas’ face is etched in my mind too … but I’m also getting used to it.

Arenas had one of his better offensive games of the season against Sacramento on Wednesday night. It was just his fifth game getting to double figures in field-goals made (10), tied for his second most free-throws attempted (12) and third most made (10), only the fourth time he took more than three three-pointers and shot fifty-percent or better (3-6), and his sixth time shooting 45% or better when taking 10 or more shots (.455).

All signs of progress for Gilbert.

Of course, the team is pretty much the same. Last night was the fourteenth time the Wizards have shot below 45% this season (43.2%). They are 1-13 when that happens. It was also the thirteenth time the Wizards have tallied less than 20 assists (13). They are 1-12 when that happens.

Coincidentally, the Wizards are 0-11 when they have less than 20 assists and shoot less than 45%. The are 5-3 when they have 20 or more assists and shoot better than 45%.

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(flickr/coolgates)

There was a mini-spike in Randy Foye news last week. On Monday, after watching a video about Foye on NBA.com, I wondered if he could be ‘the’ difference maker.

On Wednesday, the WaPost’s Michael Lee put together a nice piece on Foye off his notes from a previous meeting. Here, we learned of a potential style conflict between Foye and former T-Wolves head coach, current Wizards assistant, Randy Wittman. Lee also related something Kevin McHale once told Foye before a matchup against Dwyane Wade, “Anything he can do, you can do.” Foye battled and finished with 29 points to Wade’s 31. The game came down to a last second foul call that Foye did not get … Wade probably would have.

Predating Wade-Foye comparisons, looking back into John Hollinger’s vault, we find Foye associated with Vinny Del Negro. Before he was drafted in ’06, ESPN compared Foye to Ben Gordon, while NBADraft.net to Chauncey Billups. But it was DraftExpress FTL … in their ‘best’ case, Randy Foye is Mike James; worst case, Juan Dixon. Yuck.

Clearly it’s time to use historical record to compare Foye. Here are the requirements that I plugged into Basketball-Reference.com:

Looking for a season in which a player was: Read more »

[Ed. Note: this is the first post by newcomer docfunk, who was introduced in the previous post]

During each Wizards game I hope for 3 things:

1. Gilbert Arenas escapes unscathed.
2. DeShawn Stevenson does his face-wave much to the chagrin of former-Bullet turned broadcaster, Phil Chenier.
3. Caron Butler takes 20 shots or more.

The Wizards are often dismissed as a cavalry of role-players marching to the syncopated beat of Gilbert Arenas. For the past 2 seasons, we have witnessed the Wizards attempt to play Rockband sans-drummer. What resulted was a throw-the-controller inducing 19-win season which we blamed (unfairly) on Eddie Jordan’s playlist.

Though no NBA team enjoys a 19-win season, there was a silver lining. A lining which we intend to melt down and sell for liquor money. We Wizards fans are a pessimistic bunch, you see.

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I was on a break outside the other day, catching some fresh Penn Quarter air, taking a stroll around Freedom Plaza, when this little kid came up to me, and said, “Hey Mister … don’t you know that the Wizards need another big man? Haywood, Jamison, Blatche, McGee, and McGuire aren’t going to cut it.”

“Easy lil’ fella,” I told him. “We’ll keep looking around to see if we can add someone else, but we feel comfortable about what we have currently and the depth of our ballclub.”

The kid then kicked me in the shin and ran away.

I suddenly woke up from my slumber and realized those weren’t my words, those were Ernie Grunfeld’s words. I had a mission …

can big gheorghe muresan get on the horn and find the wizards a big man?

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Avidly watching (and blogging) the Wizards this past season, I came to the conclusion that while meaningfully improved, team defense still had a long way to go, especially in terms of guarding the perimeter. Since the end of the 07-08 season, there have been differing opinions on whether the Wizards defense had really improved from 06-07.

First came the Washington Times Wizards beat writer, Mike Jones, citing a “dramatic transformation” resulting from the debut of Randy Ayers’ defensive philosophy. Jones’ main statistical argument was that the Wizards went from allowing a league worst 104.9 points per game in 06-07 to 99.2 ppg in 07-08, 12th in the NBA. Mike Jones also pointed out that the Wizards went from getting out-rebounded by 1.8 boards per game to having the edge over opponents by 0.4 rpg.

Kevin Broom, in a polite counter-point on RealGM.com, concluded that the theory of Wizards defensive improvement was a fallacy. Broom was correct to write that per game statistics should not be used as a true indicator of improvement as game pace (the average offensive and defensive possessions) helps to tell the true story. In 06-07, the Wizards played at the 5th fastest pace in the NBA. In 07-08, Washington was the 4th slowest. As Kevin Broom puts it:

What happens if this season’s Wizards played at the same pace as last season’s? Their points allowed per game would rise from 99.2 to 104.3. In other words, this “improved” defense that Jones and mainstream media are celebrating is in reality an “improvement” of just 0.6 points per game.

The Pradamaster also previously covered this concept on Bullets Forever.

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