Posts for category ‘Stats’

When Washington and Toronto matched-up in Canada last Friday night, Amir Johnson of the Raptors came off the bench to score 18 points and grab 13 rebounds in a 106-89 win over the Wizards. ”They’re making him look like an All-Star,” someone probably said, also noting that this Washington franchise has seemed peculiarly deft doing so over the years. During my time following the team since 1990, nights like Johnson’s certainly don’t seem like an anomaly. But just how good is Washington at making otherwise mediocre opponents look like All-Stars? And how does Washington compare to other teams?

I used the glorious Basketball-Reference.com database to search for answers. First I needed to set up some requirements:

1. Since Johnson is the subject, I wanted someone who has scored at least 18 points and grabbed 10 rebounds off the bench. Certainly a guard could look like an All-Star with 17 points and 8 assists off the bench, as would a non-starter scoring 25 points in a reserve role (ignoring other stats), but I eliminated them for this particular exercise. Also, you could certainly have a no-name starter put up All-Star stats, but assuming he’s starting with other quality talent, his success is somewhat dimmed. A bench player it is.
2. The player’s team has to win the game. Because All-Stars, or at least All-Star efforts, always are victorious, right? (No, not right, but just another factor of elimination for this post.)

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Twenty-two games, one-third of the season, is over for the Washington Wizards. To say the least, it’s been tough on this rebuilding team. And to stress that “team” part, let’s see which combination of players has been working the best together, and which combinations haven’t.

According to BasketballValue.com, 177 different five-man units have seen action for the Washington Wizards this season. 177 sounds like a lot, but only 54 of those units have seen more than five minutes of court time together, so this post/results will focus on those, i.e., no need to include units such as John Wall, Jordan Crawford, Roger Mason, Rashard Lewis and Jan Vesely, who have seen a total of 0.03 minutes on the court together.

Five units have seen 31.75-percent of the total action. Those five units are:

1. Wall – Young – Lewis – Blatche – McGee (10.44% of court time, 110.25 minutes)
2. Wall – Young – Singleton – Booker – McGee (7.1%, 74.97)
3. Wall – Young – Singleton – Blatche – McGee (5.81%, 61.37)
4. Wall – Young – Lewis – Vesely – McGee (4.46%, 47.1)
5. Wall – Crawford – Lewis – Blatche – McGee (3.93%, 41.55)

Of those 54 “five minutes or more” lineups, these are the top five in Offensive Rating (an estimation of points scored per 100 possesions): Read more »

The Wizards held an 83-82 lead over Boston midway through the 4th quarter, but didn’t have enough answers to close out the game. The C’s cruised to their second road victory of the year, their second in Washington D.C., despite being without Rajon Rondo (who missed the game with a wrist injury) and Ray Allen (who left in the second quarter with a jammed ankle). That’s because Paul Pierce commanded much of the attention as the key piece in the Celtics’ offense, scoring 14 of his season-high 34 points in the final period.

The Wizards didn’t have an offensive crutch in the clutch, and it cost them. But Flip Saunders, in his post game presser, argued that a tough defense is just as important as a single reliable scoring threat in the closing minutes of a basketball game:

“You have to close out with your defense, that’s how you close out games, Close out with your defense and try to get some pushes up the floor and get some open floor stuff if you can. What you have to do is stay aggressive and flatten out the defense. The ball has to get below the free throw line extended. You can’t play late in games without a thrust to the basket, the ball getting down low. When the call is just a play above the top of the key, it puts too much pressure on you.”

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[Kramer Middle School, Anacostia, DC - photo: K. Weidie]

The Wizards have been bad, and for the most part, that’s okay, even somewhat expected. Even those who contribute so-called “wicked pixels” understand that the rebuild will take time. After all, some of us, such as this person typing, have been ardent followers of the franchise since years before current team owner Ted Leonsis even started his now since long ended career at AOL (1993), or even before the current franchise poster boy, John Wall, was born (September 6, 1990). So when the valid message of patience is preached, it shouldn’t so much be seen as a defensively pious sermon by Leonsis, but rather a navigation through rough waters by the current moderator of a public trust — a team which is the property of the community, not of the current proprietors who aim to make money and promote positive influences though said team.

Proprietors of wicked pixels, depending on the source, can be the equivalent of a guy manning the Crow’s Nest of the ship sending a message to those in the galley about how rough the waters are. Not exactly helpful… they know it’s rough in the galley, they can feel the waves. Still, the perspective of outside insight is always a necessity. Thus, there exceptions to being bad in a rebuild. The main one being actually looking bad in being bad. Sure, against the Bulls the Wizards scored a franchise-low 64 points. Sure, they fell apart at the very end as the team has been wont to do. But the key is that they didn’t look unexpectedly bad. New starters Trevor Booker and Chris Singleton displayed infectious toughness. The team fought against a very solid Bulls team, even without M.V.P. Derrick Rose. Yes, bad decision-making and lack of focus hurt in the game-determining stretch, but the Wizards didn’t lose, for the most part, because they played like they didn’t care. They lost because they lacked talent. Lack of capability leading to failure in a rebuild is OK, lack of wherewithal is not.

Beyond development, beyond patience, beyond hope, the Wizards franchise can ill-afford to not adjust standards according to the current job auditions, or rather, continued poor performance when it comes to the simple desire of player to earn his pay. Navigating rebuild voyages also comes with sensitive lines amongst influences of culture. It’s a long trip across rough seas, and no matter how great someone might be at being a deckhand, if they have a negative influence on the rest of the crew, throw him off the ship. Else an unwilling and unknowing mutiny could form to wash the nautical charts away in an unexpected wave of trouble, leaving the vessel in a continued, directionless state.

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In terms of winning percentage and shooting, two kind of big things in basketball, this lockout-shortened season could be rock-bottom for the rebuild of the Washington Wizards. And in terms of record books and scoring, it is. They scored 64 points tonight against Chicago, a franchise all-time low, to 78 points for the Bulls. The previous Washington franchise low was 65 points scored in an away game against the New Jersey Nets on December 13, 2002.

The Wizards shot 31-percent from the field on Wednesday in Chicago, at least they shot 36.6-percent that night in New Jersey — and Michael Jordan and Larry Hughes were chucking up shots (14-34 FGs, 31 points combined) instead of Jordan Crawford and Nick Young (6-23 FGs, 19 points combined).

Speaking of Young and Crawford, their shooting and passing stats this year:

>Crawford is shooting 33.3% from the field
while averaging 17.9 FGAs per 36 minutes as well as 3.6 assists/36.

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[Washington, DC Ward 6 Anacostia Rec Center - photo: K. Weidie]

A free-throw, the most efficient shot in basketball. But the clear irony is that the easiest way to get buckets, son (shout out to Oleksiy Pecherov, who is tearing it up in the Ukrainian Superleague), is often the most ignored difference-maker in games, unless they come at the very end. Then everyone knows the implications, and everyone is watching. It can get pretty lonely at the free-throw line in one’s thoughts.

In a sport where so many flowing events occur at once, instances where observers can focus on one man with the ball are relatively nonexistent. A solo fast-break is one (imagine Dwyane Wade in the passing lane), but even he must watch his back for a futilely hustling defender. Free-throws are another instance. On the court, nothing else is happening, aside the mental and physical jostling along the lane’s hash marks. White noise ready to rebound. All basketball-curious eyes are on a single, methodical routine. The line can be even more of an island when it’s a technical free-throw.

In 2010-11, 11 out of 30 NBA teams attempted 2000 or more free-throws, including the likes of Chicago, Oklahoma City, Miami and Orlando. The cumulative winning percentage of those eleven teams was 0.542. Ten out of 30 teams attempted 1900 or less free-throws, including the likes of Golden State, Detroit and New Jersey. The cumulative winning percentage of those ten teams was 0.508. There are, of course, exceptions. The 19-win Cleveland Cavaliers attempted the eighth most free-throws in the NBA with 2,075. The 57-win, World Champion Dallas Mavericks finished 27th in attempts with 1850. The Washington Wizards finished one attempt above the league average with 1,999, tied with the Charlotte Bobcats for 12th most in the NBA.

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[Emery Rec Center - NW Washington DC - photo: K. Weidie]

I’ve previously used historical statistical analysis in an attempt to determine who were some of the best, and worst, shooters in Wizards/Bullets franchise history.

One post explained that Slick Leonard might have had to worst shooting season in franchise record books. As a member of the ‘61-62 Chicago Packers, Leonard threw up 1,128 shots, second most on the team after Walt Bellamy, but only made 37.5-percent of them. In a nine team league that season 30 players attempted 1,000 or more field-goals, and Slick was the worst of them all.

Others, such as Kevin Loughery and Mitch Richmond, have cemented themselves as some of the worst shooters beyond the window of just one season. Loughery, over 591 career games played with the team in Baltimore, made only 41.5-percent of his 9,209 FG attempts. Richmond, who adeptly bastardized any memories of trading Chris Webber into scorn from fandom toward his aching knees, made just 41.7-percent of the 2,356 shots he took as a Wizard. To note, Loughery and Richmond were two of 26 players in franchise history to play in 160 games or more with the team and average over 15 field-goals attempted per 36 minutes.

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Sabermetrics. They have been a continous hot topic of conversation in modern sports circles, recently sparked (and fueled) by Jonah Lehrer’s Grantland column, The Math Problem. Lehrer argued that while sabermetrics — the computerized measurement of statistics, in this case basketball data — can be extremely useful at times, the allure of definitive measures of production leads us to ignore the oft-underrated intangibles. Worse, the popular obsession with quantifiable sports values has resulted in shortsighted personnel decisions. The horror!

But this post isn’t about the great paradox of sports statistics nor whether dismissing math in sports is the right call. It’s about how Washington Wizards 2011 draft pick Jan Vesely played on paper — was he a slam dunk in Europe or something less spectacular?

The Wizards brass had their hearts and minds set on adding the 6’11” combo-forward to the roster for over two years, so I wanted to take a look at what attracted the team’s attention (assuming, of course, that the front office dabbles in advanced hoops data).

Our friendly neighborhood basketball statistician, ESPN.com’s John Hollinger, has determined that there is a predictable relationship between how a player performs in the Euroleague and how he will compete as a rookie in the Association. When transitioning to the NBA, a Euroleague player’s pace-adjusted per-minute stats will be affected as follows: Read more »

[Blatche celebrates a close win over the Pistons.]

Andray Blatche. Yes, that Andray Blatche … Party All Dray. He’s been a little bit different lately, hasn’t he? Sure has. Averaging 25.6 points and 13.7 rebounds per 36 minutes in the last four games (up from his 17.4 and 8.7 respective averages per 36 for the season), since his return from injury is certainly a strong indication that things could be different for Blatche.

Straight and to the point, he’s been attacking the rim. Living in the paint. Doing the dirty work down low. All the good stuff the team has always needed Andray Blatche to do, but has never quite been satisfied.

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{John Wall looks for Kevin Seraphin - photo: K. Weidie}

{Wall looks for a trailing Andray Blatche - photo: K. Weidie}

In contrast to John Wall dropping a Rookie-Sophomore game record 22 assists on Friday night, an NBA team achieving single digits in assists over the course of a regular season game is a pretty rare feat. According to the Basketball-Reference.com database, it’s occurred just 194 times since the 1986-87 season (the extent of BBR’s game box score database). So in roughly 0.3-percent of NBA games over the last 25 seasons. And of course, your Washington Wizards did just that on Wednesday night in Orlando, tallying a mere eight dimes divided up amongst Kirk Hinrich, who had three, along with one each from and John Wall, Kevin Seraphin, Josh Howard, Andray Blatche and Hilton Armstrong.

Teams have now put up a single-digit assist total five times this season. The Orlando Magic dropped  five assists in a 26 point loss to the Miami Heat in just their second game on the 2010-11 season (the day after Orlando blew out the Wizards by 29 points in their season home opener). The Magic also had just nine team assists in a 80-74 loss to the Atlanta Hawks on December 6, 2010. The Portland Trailblazers had eight assists in a 100-86 loss to the New York Knicks on January 11, 2011. And surprisingly enough, Chris Paul’s New Orleans Hornets put up a league season low four assists for a team in a 88-70 loss to the Philadelphia 76ers on December 12, 2010.

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