The Washington Wizards have a long way until they establish a clear, universal brand that fans and media can identify. After all, the ill-conceived color-change wizard logo is still prevalent when the team is mentioned nationally, most recently evidenced by the Jason Collins coming out story and the 2013 NBA Draft Lottery. The franchise has seemingly pushed the “D.C.” logo as ranking of the three options since the redesign launch in the summer of 2011, but the old wizard still isn’t completely buried.

On top of the lacking national brand recognition, fans in Washington just don’t seem that dedicated, either. The Verizon Center, in what is said to be the seventh-largest U.S. television market, finished 22nd in total attendance amongst NBA franchises this past season, only slightly ahead of the Minnesota Timberwolves and Cleveland Cavaliers but also better than three playoff teams: the Indiana Pacers, Atlanta Hawks and Milwaukee Bucks. Downtrodden franchises like the Orlando Magic (18th), Toronto Raptors (16th), and Portland Trail Blazers (10th) out-paced the Wizards in total attendance.

When Michael Jordan donned Wizards blue from 2001 to 2003 (sometimes inaccurately, or perhaps facetiously, called Wizards “teal”), Washington finished second and third in total attendance over each of his two seasons¹. In the decade since, the franchise hasn’t finished better than 12th in the NBA in total attendance. And since last making the playoffs in 2007-08, Washington hasn’t finished better than 17th (in John Wall’s rookie season, 2010-11). Over the last five seasons, the Wizards have averaged a ranking of 20th in total attendance, which isn’t terribly bad considering that during the same time span they have fielded the NBA’s third-worst winning percentage.

[¹Over 1.6 million walked through the turnstiles in Chinatown over the two seasons Jordan was making money for Abe Pollin as a player. In the past three seasons (one of them being a lockout-shortened 66 games), the arena has received 1.9 million total entries. —Attendance numbers via Basketball-Reference.com]

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When John Wall was set to enter the NBA, knowing he’d be the No. 1 overall pick in 2010, and knowing that he’d likely be selected by the Washington Wizards, the conversation was all about his image.

He was the kid who burst on the scene out of nowhere after his sophomore year in high school (well, after this “third” year, as he had to repeat his sophomore year). Wall was also the kid previously known for attitude problems—defiance against coaches, arrested for breaking-and-entering an abandoned house, and issues with male authority figures in general.

But as his game caught the attention of those such as Kentucky head coach John Calipari and future agent Dan Fegan, Wall matured. He realized, as the Andre Agassi commercial for Canon used to go, “image is everything.” Wall, via handlers and brand-awareness coaching, became more image conscious. He thought more about his words, and he thought more about his look. Read more »

The 2012-13 NBA regular season ended a month and six days ago. Over the 170 days prior, starting on October 30, 2012, it was 82 games up, 82 games down for the Washington Wizards; 29 wins and 53 losses. The beauty is that we don’t have to live through it again—teams that win 35 percent of their games rarely want to—but we also don’t have to forget. Because you’d never learn, or improve, if you forgot everything and ripped the rearview mirror off the Ferrari.

Nineteen different individuals suited up for the Wizards this past season. Martell Webster led the way in action with 2,200 minutes, and Jason Collins contributed the fewest with 54 minutes. For all 82 games, the staff of Truth About It.net, amongst other game observations, rated each of the five Wizards starters plus two players off the bench on a three-star scale (inspired by the District of Columbia flag) in a series of posts called the D.C. Council. (Well, we evaluated players for all games, except one: Game 60, when Deron Williams completely demoralized the Wizards from ever competing by going 7-for-7 from the 3-point line in the first quarter.)

Sometimes three players off the bench were evaluated instead of two; a few times it was less than two. In general, the average rating of players coming off the bench was skewed a little higher for the simple fact that those playing better were more likely to get evaluated. Starters, on the other hand, got evaluated no matter what.

[***Also: remember that silly little time in December 2012 when the most positive talk that could be mustered was how the 1-13 Wizards led the NBA in bench scoring? Swell.]

The D.C. Council ratings are a statistical anti-stat. They are the combined impression of several interested members of the crowd, but in numerical form. Sometimes the ratings were contingent on winning and losing, and they were always subjective. They are simply one window of evaluation, combined with written analysis, both standard and advanced statistics, and shot charts. Below is a hyperlinked index of reviews for all 19 Wizards (plus a bonus review of Tomas Satoransky, Wizards Euro-stash), their average D.C. Council three-star rating, and the number of games over which they were evaluated.

The 2012-13 Washington Wizards season: it was all a dream, and not that great of a dream.

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It’s commonplace for the fan to get entrenched in ‘what ifs’—it simply has to be ingrained into DNA by now.

What if the Wizards didn’t win the pre-lottery coin flip tie-breaker against the Los Angeles Clippers after the 2008-09 season? Both teams finished with identical 19-63 records, and even though the Wizards got a single extra combination in the ’09 lottery after winning that coin flip (so, a 17.8 percent chance of getting the top pick instead of LA’s 17.7 percent), the Clippers won the prize, i.e., Blake Griffin. Not only that, but two other teams, Memphis and Oklahoma City, jumped into the top three, bumping Washington to five.

But what if the Wizards, who sent Flip Saunders as their lottery representative in 2009, had been part of the winning combination? They likely would have elected to not trade the fifth overall pick (for Mike Miller, Randy Foye and a money-save) and would have instead drafted (and kept) Griffin.

[To note: Saunders was Minnesota’s rep at the 1995 lottery and also returned to his team with the fifth overall pick, but that turned out to be Kevin Garnett—the Timberwolves finished tied with the Wizards for the second-worst NBA record that season, 21-61. Washington, holding the tie-breaker in odds to win No. 1 (18.3 percent to 18.2), landed the fourth pick and took Rasheed Wallace. Both teams were jumped by Golden State (Joe Smith, No. 1), and Philadelphia (Jerry Stackhouse, No. 3).]

Surely, with Blake Griffin missing his entire first season with the Clippers due to a broken kneecap sustained during the preseason, the Wizards, being themselves, likely would have been bad enough to land a high pick again, i.e., John Wall in 2010.

The what ifs… Wall, Lob City-ing, or whatever, to Griffin in the Verizon Center—the return of “Fun Street.” Speaking of…

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[Wizards 2012-13 Player Reviews from the TAI crew are going down; let's reflect---index:
Jannero Pargo, Jason Collins, Shaun Livingston, Shelvin Mack, Cartier Martin, Earl Barron,
Jan Vesely, Chris Singleton, Trevor Booker, Garrett Temple, Emeka Okafor, Trevor Ariza,
Martell Webster, A.J. Price, Jordan Crawford, Kevin Seraphin, Bradley Beal, Nene, John Wall.]

John Wall

6-4 : Height
195 lbs. : Weight
22 : Age
3 : Years NBA Experience
1 : NBA Team

Drafted first overall by the Washington Wizards in the 2010 NBA Draft.

Time as a Wizard in 2012-13

49 : Games
42 : Starts
1,602 : Minutes

1.91 out of 3 stars

Average Truth About It.net DC Council Game Rating
{Wall evaluated over 48 games}

20.8 PER

NBA historical PER contribution equivalent:
maybe Steve Nash for the 2001-02 Dallas Mavericks (20.8)
maybe Fat Lever for the 1986-87 Denver Nuggets (20.7),
maybe Kevin Johnson for the 1993-94 Phoenix Suns (20.6)

.134 Win Shares/48 Minutes

NBA historical WS/48 contribution equivalent:
maybe Baron Davis for the 2003-04 New Orleans Hornets (.133),
maybe Tony Parker for the 2002-03 San Antonio Spurs (.134),

With John Wall on the Court…

The Wizards offense scored 7.3 points more per 100 possessions (OffRtg)
The Wizards defense allowed 0.2 points more per 100 possessions (DefRtg)
Plus/Minus per 48 minutes: plus-1.3

Numbers : Per 36 Minutes

20.4 : Points
4.4 : Rebounds
0.8 : Blocks
1.5 : Steals
8.4 : Assists
3.5 : Turnovers
2.6 : Fouls

0.88 PPP

Wall had 1,015 offensive possessions with the Wizards that ended with a FGA, TO or FTs, and he scored 0.88 Points Per Possession (PPP) on those, ranked 261st in the NBA (via Synergy Sports Technology). Defensively, he allowed 0.89 PPP over 594 possessions, ranked 256th.

Shooting

44.1% Field Goals (324-735)
26.7% 3-Pointers (12-45)
80.4% Free Throws (246-306)

#2

John Wall in 2012-13 with the Wizards: Are You There, John? It’s Me, Stardom

by Conor Dirks (@ConorDDirks)

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In brief, a history of the Washington Wizards in the so-called “John Wall era.” At length, an exposition of the team’s front office and why the time for change is now.

“Point guards are not made, they’re delivered from heaven—and I believe he was delivered from heaven,” Flip Saunders said on “John Wall Day.” That’s what then-Washington, D.C. mayor Adrian Fenty dubbed the day after the NBA Draft when Wall was chosen first overall—June 25, 2010. Team brass wasted no time in welcoming highly-touted rookie to the city. Wall, who one day earlier signed a shoe deal with Reebok, was treated to door-to-Verizon Center limo service, red carpets, and had his mug posted on a billboard outside the arena. He even received an officially endorsed nickname, “The Game Changer.”

The Rebuild, Year One

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[On top of the 2012-13 season review of Jan Vesely by TAI's Lukas Kuba, I provide some thoughts on how to cope with his presence on the Washington Wizards amidst at least one would-be scenario.]

On the first go-around with Jan Vesely, the aim was to disassociate him with the fact that he was the sixth overall pick (at least that’s how I coped). Vesely was already on the team, and he was drafted exactly with John Wall in mind.

The Wizards went with an athletic, defensive-minded, running, dunking role player with their high pick one year after making Wall the face of the franchise. Vesely was a project for sure, but one that promised to be part of the equation.

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[This post, and its lineup data, is just one way to look back at the Washington Wizards 2012-13 season that was. More from TAI to come...]

“Come playoff time, what most coaches do, is they play eight,
they rely on seven, and they only trust five.”

—Reggie Miller, former NBA player, current television analyst

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[This is Part Two of a two-part post on Washington Wizards team president Ernie Grunfeld looking back at his almost 25-year tenure making player personnel decisions in the National Basketball Association. Part One can be read here.]

[...continued from Part One...]

>>Damage in the District

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[D.C. Council: setting the scene, rating the starters, assessing the subs, providing the analysis, and catching anything that you may have missed. Unlike the real DC Council, everything here is on the table. Game No. 82, Washington Wizards at Chicago Bulls; contributors: Kyle Weidie and Adam McGinnis from the District.]

Had to end somehow. But hey, the #Wizards season had to end somehow… vine.co/v/bUqd6WUlLKP — Kyle Weidie (@Truth_About_It) April 18, 2013 Que?

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