Emperor Ernie Grunfeld, more formally known as Washington’s Team President of Basketball Operations, discusses the ever-evolving process, which is more NeverEnding Story (the movie) and less Law & Order (an episode). Grunfeld also reveals that the Cleveland Cavaliers actually won twice. After winning the first pick, Cleveland also won the third pick, so they had to re-draw and Washington’s combination came up.

Here is a secret of the NBA Draft Lottery, which, by revealing, will result in me being sequestered, along with the ping pong ball machine, for the next calendar year with only a representative from Ernst & Young for company. My general assumption was that the NBA took a commercial break before announcing the top three picks to build drama for the audience watching at home. This is true and effective to a large degree, but the real reason they take that commercial break is so that the assembled media hoard can descend three flights of stairs, run across the street under the escort of New York’s finest, and get cordoned off in the basement of the studio in which the show is taking place. It was there, surrounded by machinery lifts, cameras that have been put out to pasture, and around 100 sweating reporters, that I learned that the Wizards had won the third pick in the lottery. You are then escorted into a freight elevator and unleashed upon the stage where you push your way to your interviewee of choice. You see the weirdest sights on the draft floor, such as Flip Saunders having an extremely candid and friendly talk with Ernie Grunfeld, Damian Lillard looking for every possible escape route, and the spawn of Dan Gilbert lapping up the attention. (Other members of the Gilbert brood looked visibly annoyed that their youngest sibling has become the human horseshoe and the only thing worth talking about on draft night.)

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It’s commonplace for the fan to get entrenched in ‘what ifs’—it simply has to be ingrained into DNA by now.

What if the Wizards didn’t win the pre-lottery coin flip tie-breaker against the Los Angeles Clippers after the 2008-09 season? Both teams finished with identical 19-63 records, and even though the Wizards got a single extra combination in the ’09 lottery after winning that coin flip (so, a 17.8 percent chance of getting the top pick instead of LA’s 17.7 percent), the Clippers won the prize, i.e., Blake Griffin. Not only that, but two other teams, Memphis and Oklahoma City, jumped into the top three, bumping Washington to five.

But what if the Wizards, who sent Flip Saunders as their lottery representative in 2009, had been part of the winning combination? They likely would have elected to not trade the fifth overall pick (for Mike Miller, Randy Foye and a money-save) and would have instead drafted (and kept) Griffin.

[To note: Saunders was Minnesota’s rep at the 1995 lottery and also returned to his team with the fifth overall pick, but that turned out to be Kevin Garnett—the Timberwolves finished tied with the Wizards for the second-worst NBA record that season, 21-61. Washington, holding the tie-breaker in odds to win No. 1 (18.3 percent to 18.2), landed the fourth pick and took Rasheed Wallace. Both teams were jumped by Golden State (Joe Smith, No. 1), and Philadelphia (Jerry Stackhouse, No. 3).]

Surely, with Blake Griffin missing his entire first season with the Clippers due to a broken kneecap sustained during the preseason, the Wizards, being themselves, likely would have been bad enough to land a high pick again, i.e., John Wall in 2010.

The what ifs… Wall, Lob City-ing, or whatever, to Griffin in the Verizon Center—the return of “Fun Street.” Speaking of…

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The NBA Lottery drawing is perhaps the last informal event left in the NBA this season. The set-up consists of three floors of conference rooms in the Millenium Hotel in New York City—you have to continously run up and down the stairs in hopes of getting the person you want to interview to speak on the record. This is how I found myself pushing past Monty Williams, who was bemoaning the summer heat in New Orleans, and making my way over to Bradley Beal, who was passing up on eating dinner until us pesky reporters were done asking our questions.

Draft Lottery night is also an evening for dumb questions, such as the requisite “did you bring anything for good luck?” Beal did not bring anything for good luck, he says, but indicated he was wearing the same burnt umber tie that he wore the night 2012. He also didn’t voice an opinion on whether the Wizards should keep the pick, stating that “it was up to Ernie and the front office, but you can see that we were doing better at the end of the year.”

More interesting news is Beal’s injury status, which remains uncertain. Beal told me that he was going in for another x-ray next week, but wasn’t particularly worried about the timetable or how he was healing. After talking to the Washington Post‘s Michael Lee, the reality is that the original recovery schedule may have been a tad agressive; waiting another four weeks till Beal is back and engaged in basketball related activities would not be entirely surprising.

Beal, however, was incredibly candid when it came to the resigning of Martell Webster: “Gotta resign Martell. Love that guy. Hits down open shots, high energy, court and locker room leader … love him, you gotta resign him.” This should be music to the ears of Webster, who is positioned to eat up the Wizards’ MLE.

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One of the more divisive precepts of late-season NBA strategy is that of tanking. At the coaching level, it’s difficult to imagine the motivation for attempting to lose games. Even more difficult to imagine is a concerted effort by the players themselves to lose. For both players and coaches in a losing season, games played long after the specter of the playoffs has departed are sometimes as important as those early in the season. Several Washington players are still playing for quite a bit, and every game counts. A.J. Price, Garrett Temple and Cartier Martin are auditioning for a job, either with the Wizards or another NBA team. John Wall has made it reasonably clear that he’d like to receive a contract extension this summer, and his play in the last weeks of the season may inform any decisions to that end. To a lesser extent, Trevor Booker and Chris Singleton are playing to redefine their future roles.

With that said, front office employees are in a more complicated position. While mounting losses influence the team’s record in an obvious way and reflect poorly on the performance of team builders, owners are playing the long game, and understand that it may be in the team’s best interest, for better or worse, to lose as much as possible during the final stretch. Their knowledge of this reality should inform a relative leniency when it comes to resting “injured” players, or giving fewer minutes to starters, among other surreptitious tanking strategies which have been historically suspected of lottery-bound teams. Another, more productive goal may also be in play: late-season games provide on-the-job experience at full speed for young players who aren’t developed enough to play heavy minutes in meaningful games — like the 22-year old Jan Vesely. From an organizational standpoint, this is incredibly valuable. The average fan may not share that enthusiasm.

Without taking a position on the morality or healthiness of influenced losing, the tangible benefit of the Wizards losing their final game tonight can be readily discerned. The way things shake out across the Association on the last day of the season has the potential to slot Washington anywhere from No. 6 to 9 in terms of lottery odds and eventual draft slot, the latter of which far more important from a practical standpoint. While it would be nice to win the lottery, the best the Wizards can hope for is a 5.4 percent chance to land the first pick. The surer thing is where a losing team will draft if they don’t win one of the top three picks. After the first three spots are randomly decided, the unlucky rest of the lottery teams (picks Nos. 4 to 14) are slotted in the draft according to their record at the end of the season. Tiebreakers, in the NBA Draft Lottery, are determined by a coin flip for the purposes of positioning, but odds to land in the top three amongst teams with the same record are split as evenly as possible.

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John Wall contemplates…
Who the Wizards should take.

Anthony Davis would have been nice, very nice. But the world is not always nice. Sure, the Wizards technically “slipped” one spot to third in Wednesday night’s NBA Draft Lottery. But, looking at the odds going in — a 19.9-percent chance to land the first pick, an 18.8-percent chance to land the second pick, a 17.1-percent chance at third, and a whopping 31.9-percent chance to slip to fourth — you can live with the results. I woke up this morning feeling more than content with either Bradley Beal or Michael Kidd-Gilchrist — almost anxious for either/or to happen already.

But, there could be other options. Thomas Robinson anyone? OR… what about a trade?

Twitter is for excitement and overreaction, sometimes. So, in the hype, a conversation between myself and user @UGotTheseIn10 quickly advanced in the direction of sending the third pick to the Portland Trailblazers for Nicolas Batum and the 11th pick (assuming UConn’s Jeremy Lamb would be available at 11) — the idea of jettisoning Andray Blatche to Portland as part of the deal even surfaced. Of course, the unison of such thoughts heavily weighted with Wizards sensibilities means the scenario would most certainly be too good to be true.

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[Nene Hilario's reaction to the trade? Here's hoping. Courtesy of SI Vault.]

JaVale and Nick Young go. Nene arrives.

Economist Tyler Cowen said in five words what I’m going to say in 250.

Pareto improvement for the Wizards, espn.go.com/nba/story/_/id…

— tylercowen (@tylercowen) March 15, 2012

Indeed. This trade was good for everyone–but especially for the Wiz.

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I should have known that the NBA Draft Lottery was not going to fall in the Washington Wizards favor when I walked into the media area.  Two members of the Cleveland Browns, Joshua Cribbs and Joe Haden, who are from Washington, D.C. and Fort Washington, MD respectively, were sitting at a table with former Cleveland Browns quarterback Bernie Kosar.  Maybe under different circumstances Cribbs and Haden would have donned the new colors of the Washington Wizards, but on this evening, their roles were to be good luck charms for Dan Gilbert.  They were ensconced in Cleveland Cavaliers gear – the former pseudo-rival of Washington which also happened to be the team that eliminated the Wizards the last time they were fortunate enough to make the playoffs

Two hours later, Dan Gilbert, his charismatic son Nick, Kosar, Cribbs and Haden were posing for pictures in front of the ESPN camera, and celebrating the fact that the Cavaliers had won the first pick of the 2011 draft.  The Wizards, who were represented by last year’s number one selection John Wall, were left with the sixth pick, despite having the fourth-worst record in the NBA.

Despite the disappointing draft position, there were still some positives for the Washington Wizards franchise.  As I wrote for the DCist, in just a short period of time Wall displayed the type of confidence and leadership that the Wizards braintrust probably expected when they drafted him first just one year ago.  He worked the room, he joked around with his fellow 2010 draft classmate Greg Monroe, as well as Kyrie Irving, who figures to the first pick of the 2011 draft class.  He was equally comfortable in between Toronto Raptors President Bryan Colangelo and Mayor of Sacramento Kevin Johnson; Wall even mentioned that he asked Mayor Johnson about his role in keeping the Kings in Sacramento.

Here is Wall speaking confidently on his summer plans, his opinion of some of the players in the draft and his expectations for his fellow teammates among other things:

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NBA Draft Lottery thoughts and links…

The life of a Wizards/Bullets fan has often been predicated on the NBA Draft Lottery. Being a fan of the team since moving to D.C. in 1990, it has generally been ‘the’ highlight of the season… More than the draft itself, more than peddled hope before a season. A simple flip of a card, the bounce of a ping-pong ball and/or the chance of mathematical equation can change the fate of a franchise for years… in just a brief moment. How exciting, right?

In 1992, with the fifth worst record in the NBA, second worst in the Eastern Conference, Washington fans hoped for Shaquille O’Neal, or even Alonzo Mourning. Instead, the Bullets were jumped by the Charlotte Hornets (who chose Mourning with the second pick), and ended up with the sixth pick and Tom Gugliotta.

With the fifth worst record again in 1994, did the Wizards succeed in landing one of three draft prizes in Glenn Robinson, Jason Kidd or Grant Hill? Nope. Fifth is where they stayed… begin memories of the Juwan Howard saga.

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[Editor's note: Check out the debut of new TAI author, John Townsend. Read more about that John at the bottom of this post, but first, check out his piece about another John. -Kyle]

America always seems to need an enemy, whether they’re found in politics (terrorists!) or in sports (referee Dan Crawford for Mavericks fans).  Sure, there are times when our criticism of these villains is justified (British Petroleum), but just as often it is not (Steve Bartman).

The most celebrated, captivating products and people are the most polarizing as well.  We should expect this, especially considering the amount of time, money, and hopes being invested.  This all brings me to John Wall – savior or setback? The question was never will the Wizards select John Wall, but instead what will happen when they do.

The debate over whether or not John Wall is the answer in Washington, DC is groundless.  John Wall is one part of the solution to a greater basketball challenge.

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I will continue to be dumbfounded for an indeterminate amount of time, but will hold the right, as a Wizards fan, to still be skeptical about the future … even after getting the #1 overall pick.

Alright, screw that. I’m happy. I’m not yelling at the top of my lungs/doing jumping jacks happy — I’m still too shocked to show physical elation — But man … it feels good to finally be “that” team.

When was the last time all other NBA teams were envious of the Washington Wizards? I can’t remember. And I’m conveniently not counting the lottery the Wizards won which afforded them the “opportunity” to select Kwame Brown in a crappy draft. I was away in college back then and this John Wall opportunity is worlds away from a meek Georgia boy with tiny hands.

Sure, I was somewhat skeptical about Irene Pollin being the Wizards’ representative at the NBA Draft Lottery. I was wrong. I’m even more skeptical about saying any good luck charms or superstitions worked (even though I sometimes practice superstitions because it’s really no skin off my butt to do so … I didn’t tonight).

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