Twenty-two games, one-third of the season, is over for the Washington Wizards. To say the least, it’s been tough on this rebuilding team. And to stress that “team” part, let’s see which combination of players has been working the best together, and which combinations haven’t.

According to BasketballValue.com, 177 different five-man units have seen action for the Washington Wizards this season. 177 sounds like a lot, but only 54 of those units have seen more than five minutes of court time together, so this post/results will focus on those, i.e., no need to include units such as John Wall, Jordan Crawford, Roger Mason, Rashard Lewis and Jan Vesely, who have seen a total of 0.03 minutes on the court together.

Five units have seen 31.75-percent of the total action. Those five units are:

1. Wall – Young – Lewis – Blatche – McGee (10.44% of court time, 110.25 minutes)
2. Wall – Young – Singleton – Booker – McGee (7.1%, 74.97)
3. Wall – Young – Singleton – Blatche – McGee (5.81%, 61.37)
4. Wall – Young – Lewis – Vesely – McGee (4.46%, 47.1)
5. Wall – Crawford – Lewis – Blatche – McGee (3.93%, 41.55)

Of those 54 “five minutes or more” lineups, these are the top five in Offensive Rating (an estimation of points scored per 100 possesions):

1. Mack – Crawford – Mason – Lewis – Seraphin (158.82 Off Rtg; 9.58 minutes)
2. Mack – Young – Singleton – Booker – Seraphin (140; 5.27)
3. Wall – Crawford – Young – Vesely – Blatche (137.5; 8.28)
4. Mack – Young – Singleton – Booker – Turiaf (136.36; 6.07)
5. Wall – Young – Booker – Lewis – Seraphin (136.36; 5.62)

Read more »

Quietly, rookie Shelvin Mack is one of the few positives in another lost Wizards season in terms of wins and losses. Just about every day, Mack writes into his Twitter account, @ShelvinMack, ”Think Positive…….” So to not let something good go unnoticed, let’s talk about Mr. Mack for a second.

Thus far this NBA season, 34 rookies have played at least 100 total minutes. Mack’s PER (Player Efficiency Rating) stands at 15.1, which is slightly above the league average of 15. For a rook, however, this is better than average. His PER ranks eighth best amongst the list of 34 rookies (via Basketball-Reference.com). Here’s the top 10:

1. Kyrie Irving – 21.5
2. MarShon Brooks – 19.5
3. Nikola Vucevic – 18.1
4. Jon Leuer – 17.6
5. Ricky Rubio – 17.6
6. Enes Kanter – 16.9
7. Kemba Walker – 15.4
8. Shelvin Mack – 15.1
9. Tobias Harris – 14.9
10. Kawhi Leonard – 14.9

To note, Chris Singleton has a PER of 10.0 (ranked 26th) and Jan Vesely has a PER of 6.4 (ranked 32) — no reason to be down on Washington’s first rounders in comparison to their second rounder, however.

To also note, Washington has four NBA sophomores (PERs) – John Wall (16.2), Trevor Booker (14.5), Jordan Crawford (14.0) and Kevin Seraphin (14.0) — who rank fifth, eight, ninth, and tenth respectively amongst 32 players in their class who have played at least 100 minutes this season (via BBR). Read more »

[Mike Wise and Pam McGee - photo: K. Weidie]

When the basis for an article is interviewing a mom about her son, you know what’s bound to happen: irrationality entrenched in unconditional love. No big deal, it’s to be expected. But when the Washington Post’s Mike Wise loads his pen with the ink of JaVale McGee’s mom, Pamela, talking about her son: a media firestorm fueled by irrationality. Oh what, if anything, will Ted Leonsis’ blogging fingers say about these maternally induced pixels, seeing that through the conduit of Wise, Pamela calls out his coach and his franchise? The Wizards may wind up miffed because of Wise’s article, but they certainly can’t be surprised. Difficulties with JaVale McGee’s mom — the “Little League parent,” Wise calls her — are well-known throughout the organization.

She calls out Flip Saunders for “throwing JaVale under the bus” in criticizing his recent backboard dunk, a feat she says was done to “break up to monotony” of losing. (Does she realize how much Saunders bites the bullet to defend McGee already?) We also know that Flip didn’t even take McGee out of the game because of that dunk against Houston. He played the next five minutes of the third quarter and about the first three minutes of the fourth… before getting the hook for completely losing track of Jordan Hill for a points and then subsequently shooting a bad jumper.

Pamela McGee also claims, “They aren’t running any plays for him. With a 7-footer with hands like that, the kid is averaging a double-double without plays run for him; he gets those points off garbage.”

Read more »

[Kramer Middle School, Anacostia, DC - photo: K. Weidie]

The Wizards have been bad, and for the most part, that’s okay, even somewhat expected. Even those who contribute so-called “wicked pixels” understand that the rebuild will take time. After all, some of us, such as this person typing, have been ardent followers of the franchise since years before current team owner Ted Leonsis even started his now since long ended career at AOL (1993), or even before the current franchise poster boy, John Wall, was born (September 6, 1990). So when the valid message of patience is preached, it shouldn’t so much be seen as a defensively pious sermon by Leonsis, but rather a navigation through rough waters by the current moderator of a public trust — a team which is the property of the community, not of the current proprietors who aim to make money and promote positive influences though said team.

Proprietors of wicked pixels, depending on the source, can be the equivalent of a guy manning the Crow’s Nest of the ship sending a message to those in the galley about how rough the waters are. Not exactly helpful… they know it’s rough in the galley, they can feel the waves. Still, the perspective of outside insight is always a necessity. Thus, there exceptions to being bad in a rebuild. The main one being actually looking bad in being bad. Sure, against the Bulls the Wizards scored a franchise-low 64 points. Sure, they fell apart at the very end as the team has been wont to do. But the key is that they didn’t look unexpectedly bad. New starters Trevor Booker and Chris Singleton displayed infectious toughness. The team fought against a very solid Bulls team, even without M.V.P. Derrick Rose. Yes, bad decision-making and lack of focus hurt in the game-determining stretch, but the Wizards didn’t lose, for the most part, because they played like they didn’t care. They lost because they lacked talent. Lack of capability leading to failure in a rebuild is OK, lack of wherewithal is not.

Beyond development, beyond patience, beyond hope, the Wizards franchise can ill-afford to not adjust standards according to the current job auditions, or rather, continued poor performance when it comes to the simple desire of player to earn his pay. Navigating rebuild voyages also comes with sensitive lines amongst influences of culture. It’s a long trip across rough seas, and no matter how great someone might be at being a deckhand, if they have a negative influence on the rest of the crew, throw him off the ship. Else an unwilling and unknowing mutiny could form to wash the nautical charts away in an unexpected wave of trouble, leaving the vessel in a continued, directionless state.

All of this nonsense aside, let’s get into another aspect of being bad: measurables. Below is a chart with data courtesy of mySynergySports.com. “PPP” stands for Points Per Possession, a possession being defined by Synergy as a play that ends in a field-goal attempt, a turnover, or free-throws. The chart reflects the various types of plays tracked by Synergy on both offense and defense. The comparison is between the Wizards of 2010-11 and the Wizards through this current season’s first 10 games. Percent (%) Time reflects how often the Wizards run said play type on offense/how often they see them on defense. Read more »

In terms of winning percentage and shooting, two kind of big things in basketball, this lockout-shortened season could be rock-bottom for the rebuild of the Washington Wizards. And in terms of record books and scoring, it is. They scored 64 points tonight against Chicago, a franchise all-time low, to 78 points for the Bulls. The previous Washington franchise low was 65 points scored in an away game against the New Jersey Nets on December 13, 2002.

The Wizards shot 31-percent from the field on Wednesday in Chicago, at least they shot 36.6-percent that night in New Jersey — and Michael Jordan and Larry Hughes were chucking up shots (14-34 FGs, 31 points combined) instead of Jordan Crawford and Nick Young (6-23 FGs, 19 points combined).

Speaking of Young and Crawford, their shooting and passing stats this year:

>Crawford is shooting 33.3% from the field
while averaging 17.9 FGAs per 36 minutes as well as 3.6 assists/36.

>Young is shooting 37.7% from the field
while averaging 16.8 FGAs per 36 minutes as well as 1.7 assists/36.

Read more »

Training camp is set to begin today for the Washington Wizards. Actually, it’s starting right about as I hit ‘publish’ on this post. Roger Mason Jr. is your newest Wizard, Mo Evans might be set to return, and Nick Young… well, we’re not quite sure yet. Could be a couple days.

Aaron Pettway and Mardy Collins have been invited to camp, per Craig Stouffer, on top of previously reported invitee, and former Wizard, Mike Wilks.

The TAI team will do our best to cover training camp happenings, but we are also old cats with regular jobs, and other stuff. For instance, Adam McGinnis and I coach a Boys & Girls club basketball team (10-11 year old boys), and we have a game this evening that might preclude attendance at tonight’s initial training camp media section. Another TAI regular, Rashad Mobley, is very close to celebrating the birth of a new child. So, Wizards basketball will come. In the meantime, a couple of training camp musings…

Leadership of John Wall?

One training camp question that Mike Prada posed on SB Nation is ‘How is John Wall relating to his teammates?’ The idea is to hope Wall becomes even more vocal as the team leader. Personally, I feel he will be just fine in this regard. It brings me back to Wall’s very first NBA summer league game in July 2010. Right off the bat, he certainly wasn’t bashful about imploring JaVale McGee to rebound the ball with two hands. Since, there have been countless observed instances of Wall being vocal, barking court orders to his teammates.

Read more »

[Roger Mason Jr. - via Flickr/Keith Allison]

It’s now being widely reported that Roger Mason Jr. — native son of D.C., attendee of Sidwell Friends/Good Counsel, UVA Cavalier — will soon sign with the Washington Wizards, making it his second stint with the team. Teams can officially sign players at 2 pm on Friday, just before training camp is scheduled to commence. The Post’s Michael Lee reports that Mason will be in Washington, ready to join the team.

How do I feel about this? Iffy, yet content. For one, the signing fits the Ernie Grunfeld mold. The Wizards team president values the presence of veterans, and even though the Wizards hopefully aren’t promising Mason too much court action, nor are overpaying him (the veteran’s minimum, they say, which is just fine), Washington likely offers Mason the most comfort and opportunity over other potential suitors. The Boston Celtics were also said to be interested in Mason; in that situation, Roger might’ve easily found himself relegated to those spillover seats behind the bench, following the inactive dress code, and wondering how and why.

Washington it will be, in an existence of factual acceptance. Speaking of facts, below are some stats regarding the player. While I’m less than enthused about a Roger Mason Jr. signing, in the end I can’t help but welcome back the hometown guy in hopes that he will revitalize the sun-setting of his career, as he turned 31 in September, and I am about 10 weeks older. Read more »

[Washington, DC Ward 6 Anacostia Rec Center - photo: K. Weidie]

A free-throw, the most efficient shot in basketball. But the clear irony is that the easiest way to get buckets, son (shout out to Oleksiy Pecherov, who is tearing it up in the Ukrainian Superleague), is often the most ignored difference-maker in games, unless they come at the very end. Then everyone knows the implications, and everyone is watching. It can get pretty lonely at the free-throw line in one’s thoughts.

In a sport where so many flowing events occur at once, instances where observers can focus on one man with the ball are relatively nonexistent. A solo fast-break is one (imagine Dwyane Wade in the passing lane), but even he must watch his back for a futilely hustling defender. Free-throws are another instance. On the court, nothing else is happening, aside the mental and physical jostling along the lane’s hash marks. White noise ready to rebound. All basketball-curious eyes are on a single, methodical routine. The line can be even more of an island when it’s a technical free-throw.

In 2010-11, 11 out of 30 NBA teams attempted 2000 or more free-throws, including the likes of Chicago, Oklahoma City, Miami and Orlando. The cumulative winning percentage of those eleven teams was 0.542. Ten out of 30 teams attempted 1900 or less free-throws, including the likes of Golden State, Detroit and New Jersey. The cumulative winning percentage of those ten teams was 0.508. There are, of course, exceptions. The 19-win Cleveland Cavaliers attempted the eighth most free-throws in the NBA with 2,075. The 57-win, World Champion Dallas Mavericks finished 27th in attempts with 1850. The Washington Wizards finished one attempt above the league average with 1,999, tied with the Charlotte Bobcats for 12th most in the NBA.

Getting to the line in abundance is one thing, making them is another. Washington finished tied with that Cleveland team with a 0.745 free-throw percentage, good enough for 24th league-wide. Free-throws are part of the “Four Factors” of winning basketball (offensively and defensively), popularized by statistician Dean Oliver. Oliver estimates free-throws as 15-percent of success, compared to shooting (40%), turnovers (25%), and rebounding (20%). Free-throw success in this sense is measured by the ratio of free-throws made to field-goals attempted. In 2010-11, Washington finished with an offensive FT/FGA ratio of 0.216, ranked 23rd in the NBA.

Read more »

[Emery Rec Center - NW Washington DC - photo: K. Weidie]

I’ve previously used historical statistical analysis in an attempt to determine who were some of the best, and worst, shooters in Wizards/Bullets franchise history.

One post explained that Slick Leonard might have had to worst shooting season in franchise record books. As a member of the ‘61-62 Chicago Packers, Leonard threw up 1,128 shots, second most on the team after Walt Bellamy, but only made 37.5-percent of them. In a nine team league that season 30 players attempted 1,000 or more field-goals, and Slick was the worst of them all.

Others, such as Kevin Loughery and Mitch Richmond, have cemented themselves as some of the worst shooters beyond the window of just one season. Loughery, over 591 career games played with the team in Baltimore, made only 41.5-percent of his 9,209 FG attempts. Richmond, who adeptly bastardized any memories of trading Chris Webber into scorn from fandom toward his aching knees, made just 41.7-percent of the 2,356 shots he took as a Wizard. To note, Loughery and Richmond were two of 26 players in franchise history to play in 160 games or more with the team and average over 15 field-goals attempted per 36 minutes.

Another post noted that Gilbert Arenas is the best long-range bomber in team history, and that some of the franchise’s better shooters — over various time periods, from everywhere on the court… twos, threes and ones — have been Brent Price, Mike Miller, Scott Skiles, Chris Whitney, Tracy Murray, Antawn Jamison and Caron Butler.

Read more »

When a key deadline trade goes down between a playoff team needing help and a non-playoff team needing to rebuild, most feel bad for the veteran going to the losing situation —  Sasha Vujacic, Vince Carter, Rashard Lewis, Mike Bibby, Maurice “Mo” Evans come to mind from this season. The secondary consideration, partially because he’s going to that losing team, is the young player who would gladly trade riding the bench during a playoff run for a chance to suit up for a team going nowhere. Jordan Crawford got that and more when he went from Atlanta to Washington. He got off to a hot start with a new team that he wouldn’t give up on, even when hindered by a back injury. He got that treasured green light, which is rare, even for a lottery team. But what happens when that green light ends?

Crawford arrived in Washington at February’s trade deadline along with the 18th pick of the 2011 draft and a good veteran influence in Evans. In exchange, the Wizards gave up Kirk Hinrich (owed $8 million next season) and Hilton Armstrong. They also got the unexpected bonus of a money-saving buyout of Mike Bibby, who also came with Crawford and Evans from Atlanta. Because of a knee injury to Nick Young, he suddenly found himself going from the 12th or 13th man on the bench to full-time starter by his seventh game with the Wizards. He ended up starting his final 17 games in Washington, out of 26 total games with the team. The carefree Wizards bunch went a respectable 7-10 in those last 17 games, during which Crawford averaged 20 points, 3.6 rebounds, 4.9 assists (to 3.1 turnovers), and 1.3 steals. Pretty impressive for the 27th pick of the 2010 draft.

But what’s a constant green light scenario without some wrecks and gridlock? Specifically speaking, Crawford’s intriguingly erratic and promise-filled offense comes with the caveat of him shooting  .394 from the field on 19.5 attempts per game in 40.7 minutes per contest. Volume shooting like that can get you beat. He also shot .280 from three (1.2 makes per game), and .877 from the free-throw line (3.8 attempts per game).

Read more »

[Blatche celebrates a close win over the Pistons.]

Andray Blatche. Yes, that Andray Blatche … Party All Dray. He’s been a little bit different lately, hasn’t he? Sure has. Averaging 25.6 points and 13.7 rebounds per 36 minutes in the last four games (up from his 17.4 and 8.7 respective averages per 36 for the season), since his return from injury is certainly a strong indication that things could be different for Blatche.

Straight and to the point, he’s been attacking the rim. Living in the paint. Doing the dirty work down low. All the good stuff the team has always needed Andray Blatche to do, but has never quite been satisfied.

Against the Detroit Pistons on Tuesday night, the Wizards’ third win in a row (for the first time since April 2008), Blatche forced in 26 points on 8-18 shooting. Four of his misses came from inside five-feet from the rim (which is a good thing), and he made 7-8 of his field-goal attempts within two-feet.

Read more »

{John Wall looks for Kevin Seraphin - photo: K. Weidie}

{Wall looks for a trailing Andray Blatche - photo: K. Weidie}

In contrast to John Wall dropping a Rookie-Sophomore game record 22 assists on Friday night, an NBA team achieving single digits in assists over the course of a regular season game is a pretty rare feat. According to the Basketball-Reference.com database, it’s occurred just 194 times since the 1986-87 season (the extent of BBR’s game box score database). So in roughly 0.3-percent of NBA games over the last 25 seasons. And of course, your Washington Wizards did just that on Wednesday night in Orlando, tallying a mere eight dimes divided up amongst Kirk Hinrich, who had three, along with one each from and John Wall, Kevin Seraphin, Josh Howard, Andray Blatche and Hilton Armstrong.

Teams have now put up a single-digit assist total five times this season. The Orlando Magic dropped  five assists in a 26 point loss to the Miami Heat in just their second game on the 2010-11 season (the day after Orlando blew out the Wizards by 29 points in their season home opener). The Magic also had just nine team assists in a 80-74 loss to the Atlanta Hawks on December 6, 2010. The Portland Trailblazers had eight assists in a 100-86 loss to the New York Knicks on January 11, 2011. And surprisingly enough, Chris Paul’s New Orleans Hornets put up a league season low four assists for a team in a 88-70 loss to the Philadelphia 76ers on December 12, 2010.

The Wizards last achieved the single-digit assist mark with nine on December 23, 2008 against the Charlotte Bobcats. That game, Mike James started at the point and went 4-16 from the field with one assist. DeShawn Stevenson and Nick Young were the only guards off the bench and Caron Butler led the team with four assists.

Read more »

[Looking above for help in the clutch]

The Washington Wizards have been involved in 12 games out of 50 which have been decided by five points or less. Their record in those games is 7-5, with wins coming against Philadelphia (twice), Boston, Memphis, Sacramento, Toronto and Portland; the losses have come against Cleveland, Detroit, Atlanta, Orlando and Miami. Only two of the games have come on the road, the losses to the Pistons and the Hawks.

So, Washington has fared better in close games in comparison to their 13-37 record on the season overall. But the glaring problem, especially in the midst of an 0-25 road record, is that Flip Saunders does not have a player with the ability to step up as a clutch performer and truly put the team on their back when big buckets need to be scored, or when a defensive stop needs to be made.

Well, some players have the ability, it’s just that they either shy away from that role in crunch time or they become a magnified epitome of their usual inefficiencies. Whatever the case may be, no one is getting it done, especially franchise savior and No. 1 NBA Draft pick John Wall. And that’s okay. Wall will learn and develop, and hopefully the team will with him. But for now, let’s take a quick look at how some individual Wizards have fared in clutch time.

Read more »

“Synergy” is an over-used buzzword, but it’s also a damn fine NBA statistics web site. So let’s use Synergy Sports Technology to take a quick snap-shot of some Wizards numbers to date.

This season, the Wizards’ defense has often been better than the offense. With the ball, on plays that have ended in a FGA, TO or FTs, Washington has tallied 0.89 points per possession (PPP), ranked 27th out of 30 NBA teams. They score 42.9-percent of the time and turn the ball over 13.7-percent of the time in these situations.

Washington’s overall offensive rating (ORtg – points produced per 100 possessions, which is calculated differently and likely includes other factors outside of plays that end in a FGA, TO or FTs) sits in line with these focused numbers; their 102.6 ORtg also ranks 27th.

The Wizards are particularly bad at scoring on post ups — which comes as no surprise considering the roster construction — chalking up a measly 0.70 PPP over 318 opportunities, a rate that’s ranked dead last in the league. Andray Blatche has produced 0.64 PPP on 121 post up opportunities, JaVale McGee has produced 0.66 PPP on 64 post ups, Yi Jianlian 0.50 PPP on 28 post ups … you get the point, the cupboards are bare, the well is dry and the children are starving.

In contrast,  the Wizards fare above average (at least in ranking comparison) on Pick-and-Roll ball handler plays on offense, producing 0.82 PPP over 567 possessions, which is ranked 12th in the NBA. John Wall clearly needs some work in this area, producing just 0.69 PPP as the offensive P&R ball handler, which ranks 106 in the league. Kirk Hinrich, on the other hand, produces 0.95 PPP as the P&R ball handler, ranked 17th. This is simply a difference in seasoned decision-making that will eventually come for Wall.

Read more »

Commentary and links …

You’ll often hear NBA coaches, especially Flip Saunders, exclaim (perhaps complain) about two things in explanation of their team’s faults: injuries and lack of practice time. Well, with three days off since their last game, along with the report that all 15 Wizards practiced for the first time this season yesterday, there will be little room for excuses as the team travels to Philadelphia tonight to seek their first road win of the season against the 76ers. Stay tuned …

Playing Down Defense?

On Monday the Washington Post’s Michael Lee had a good story about the Wizards’ improved defense since the Gilbert Arenas trade. Now, I’ll take a look at an additional level of defensive statistics.

As Lee wrote, before the trade the Wizards were giving up 105.8 points per game and after, 91 points per game. Since different opponents play at a different pace, thus the possessions in a game will fluctuate, we’ll look at points scored per 100 possessions* as a more balanced factor. Before the trade, the Wizards gave up 109.8 points per 100 possessions, and 96.7 after. So, the difference in pre- and post-trade points per game is 14.8; the difference in points given up per 100 possessions is 13.0.

Interestingly enough, before the trade, the current cumulative winning percentage of Washington’s opponents is an even .500; post trade opponents now have a .579 winning percentage.

Read more »